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21世纪东亚季风变化:CMIP3和CMIP5模式预估结果

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Keywords: 全球变暖,东亚季风,气候模式,预估

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Abstract:

使用国际耦合模式比较计划第3和最新的第5阶段中共42个气候模式的数值试验结果,首先定量评估了它们对于当代东亚冬、夏季风气候态的模拟能力;而后在SRESA1B中等温室气体排放情景或者RCP4.5中等偏低辐射强迫情景下,根据择优选取的31和29个气候模式分别对21世纪东亚冬、夏季风变化进行了预估研究.结果表明相对于1980~1999年参照时段,21世纪东亚冬季风强度整体上变化不大,在区域尺度上则表现为在东亚约25°N以北地区减弱,在其南部加强,这主要是源于阿留申低压系统减弱和北移所引起的西北太平洋和东北亚地区大气环流变化,同时也与东北亚地区西北至东南向热力对比和气压梯度减小有关.另一方面,东亚大陆与西北太平洋和南海的海陆热力差异加大导致21世纪中国东部夏季风环流略有加强.

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