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ENSO和北极涛动对东亚冬季气候异常的综合影响

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Keywords: 厄尔尼诺和南方涛动,北极涛动,东亚冬季气候,气温与降水异常,平流层与对流层相互作用

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Abstract:

利用NCEP/DOE再分析资料以及我国温度和降水台站资料,以厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ElNi?oandSouthernOscillation,ENSO)冷、暖位相的冬季作为背景,结合北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)的月际异常,对两者影响东亚冬季气候异常的综合作用进行了研究.结果表明,当ElNi?o和AO负异常或者LaNi?a和AO正异常相互配置时,我国北方气候异常主要受AO影响,南方气候异常主要受ENSO影响,并且该气候异常与已经认识到的AO和ENSO影响东亚气候异常的机理相一致.然而,当ElNi?o和AO正异常或者LaNi?a和AO负异常相互配置时,尽管我国北方气温仍主要受AO影响,但我国大部分地区,特别是南方的气候异常呈现出与已有认识很不一样的变化模态.进一步的分析认为出现这种差异的原因可能在于平流层和对流层相互作用以及东亚地区中低纬相互作用的不同,这会导致在前者的冬季,大气环流主要表现为纬向对称性,中低纬相互作用偏弱,ENSO和AO对东亚的影响表现出线性的作用;而在后者的冬季,则不利于大气环形模态的维持,导致东亚地区中低纬相互作用偏强,ENSO和AO对东亚的影响呈现出非线性的相互叠加.

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