2 Dai A, Trenberth K E, Qian T. A global gataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeor, 2004, 5: 1117-1130
[3]
3 Dai A. Drought under global warming: A review. WIREs Clim Change, 2011, doi: 10.1002/wcc.81
[4]
4 Huang J P, Guan X, Ji F. Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions. Atmos Chem Phys, 2012, 12: 5391-5398
13 Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2012, 93: 485-498
[8]
14 Orlowsky B, Seneviratne S I. Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short-and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 2012, 9: 13773-13803
[9]
15 Dai A. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change, 2013, 3: 52-58
[10]
16 Hoerling M P, Eischeid J K, Quan X W, et al. Is a transition to semipermanent drought conditions imminent in the U.S. great plains? J Clim, 2012, 25: 8380-8386
[11]
17 Wuebbles D, Meehl G, Hayhoe K, et al. CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2013, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1
[12]
18 Funk C. Exceptional warming in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in Eastern Africa. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2012, 7: 1049-1051
[13]
19 Joetzjer E, Douville H, Delire C, et al. Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: A case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 2012, 9: 13231-13249
[14]
20 Chen W L, Jiang Z H, Li L. Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using 28 AOGCMs. J Clim, 2011, 24: 4741-4756
28 Wen H Q, Zhang X, Xu Y, et al. Detecting human influence on extreme temperatures in China. Geophys Res Lett, 2013, 40: 1171-1176
[17]
29 Ou T H, Chen D L, Linderholm H W, et al. Evaluation of global climate models in simulating extreme precipitation in China. Tellus Ser-Dyn Meteorol Ocesnol A, 2013, 65, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19799
32 Sperber K, Annamalai R H, Kang I S, et al. The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Clim Dyn, 2012, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6
[21]
34 Bellenger H, Guilyardi E, Leloup J, et al. ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn, 2013, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z
[22]
41 Helsel D R, Hirsch R M. Statistical methods in water resources. US Geological Survey, TWRI4-A3, 2002
[23]
43 Lauer A, Hamilton K. Simulating clouds with global climate models: A comparison of CMIP5 results with CMIP3 and satellite data. J Clim, 2013, 26: 3823-3845
23 Zhang J, Li L, Zhou T J, et al. Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations. Adv Atmos Sci, 2013, 30: 1587-1600
35 Bhaskar J, Hu Z Z, Arun K A. SST and ENSO variability and change simulated in historical experiments of CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn, 2013, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1803-z
[38]
36 Ruiz-Barradas A, Nigam S, Kavvada A. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth century climate simulations: Uneven progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn, 2013, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1810-0
[39]
37 Jones P D, Harris I. CRU Time Series (TS) High Resolution Gridded Data Version 3.10. Oxford: NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, 2011
[40]
38 Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, et al. GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol, 2013, doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
[41]
39 Kendall M G. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Charles Griffin & Company LTD, 1975
[42]
40 Gilbert R O. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1987
[43]
42 Taylor K E. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res, 2011, 106: 7138-7192