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科学通报  2014 

CMIP5多模式对全球典型干旱半干旱区气候变化的模拟与预估

DOI: 10.1360/csb2014-59-12-1148, PP. 1148-1163

Keywords: 干旱半干旱区,CMIP5,气候变化,气候模拟,气候预估,气温,降水

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Abstract:

应用CRU3.1气温资料和GPCCV6降水数据,系统评估了国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中17个耦合模式对全球典型干旱半干旱区的长期气候变化的模拟能力,并在此基础上分析了不同典型浓度路径(representativeconcentrationpathways,RCPs)下典型干旱半干旱区未来的气候变化情景.结果表明大多数模式都能模拟出全球陆地以及典型干旱半干旱区观测气温时空分布特征,特别是近60年来显著增温的空间格局,但增温幅度偏小0.1~0.3℃/50a;大多数模式难以捕捉到全球陆地观测降水的年际变化特征,模拟的变率和趋势均明显偏弱,不同模式对干旱半干旱区降水的模拟存在较大的时空差异,但总体上还是多模式集成结果更为接近观测值;在人类活动和自然变化的共同影响下,全球及其不同干旱半干旱区未来气温的变化均是以显著增温为主,特别是高端浓度路径(RCP8.5)下的增温幅度几乎是中低端浓度路径(RCP4.5)下的2倍;降水的未来变化情景基本上是“干愈干、湿愈湿”的时空特征,也是高端浓度路径下的变化更为明显;而未来中国北方干旱半干旱区很可能是气温上升、降水增加最为显著的地区之一.

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