全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
科学通报  2011 

年际和年代际冷暖变化是人类活动碳排放量增减的诱因

, PP. 68-73

Keywords: 全球气温,美国气温,碳排放量,年际,年代际,诱因

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

工业化以来的近百年全球平均气温、大气CO2浓度和欧美发达国家(美国、英国、法国和德国)化石燃烧年和月的碳排放量等数据用于分析它们之间在年际和年代际时间尺度上的变化关系.在年际尺度上,美国冬季气温偏低(高)年的碳排放量显著增加(减少);夏季与之相反,化石燃烧的碳排放量与气温存在显著的正相关.在年代际尺度上,美国和全球的气温偏冷(暖)期对应碳排放量的高(低)值期,而且气温冷暖变化超前5~7年与碳排放量增减有显著的相关.这种年代际的超前相关关系以及年际的季节不对称性都显示出,气温冷暖变化是人类活动碳排放量增减的诱因.

References

[1]  1. IPCC (TAR). Summary for policymakers. In: Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al, eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001
[2]  3. Knight J, Kennedy J J, Folland C, et al. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions? Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2009, 90: S22-S23
[3]  4. Kerr R A. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science, 2009, 326: 28-29
[4]  5. 王绍武, 罗勇, 唐国利, 等. 近10 年全球变暖停止了吗? 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6: 95-99
[5]  6. Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111: D12106, doi: 10-1029/2005JD006548
[6]  7. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). Global, regional, and national fossil fuel CO2 emissions. http://cdiac.ornl.gov
[7]  12. Schlesinger M E, Ramankutty N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature, 1994, 367: 723-726??
[8]  16. Marland G, Boden T A, Andres R J. Global, regional, and national CO2 emissions. In: A compendium of data on global change. Tennessee: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. 2008
[9]  2. IPCC (FAR). Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S D, Qin D, Manning M, et al, eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007
[10]  8. Etheridge D M, Steele L P, Langenfelds R L, et al. Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn. J Geophys Res, 1996, 101: 4115-4128??
[11]  9. Keeling C D, Bacastow R B, Bainbridge A E, et al. Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Tellus, 1976, 28: 538-551??
[12]  10. 江剑民, Fraedrich K, 邹耀仁. 多尺度突变现象的扫描式t 检验方法及其相干性分析. 地球物理学报, 2001, 44: 32-40
[13]  11. Wu Z H, Huang N E, Long S R, et al. On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2007, 104: 14889-14894??
[14]  13. 钱维宏, 陆波, 祝从文. 全球平均温度在21 世纪将怎样变化? 科学通报, 2010, 55: 1532-1537
[15]  14. 钱维宏, 陆波. 千年全球气温中的周期性变化及其成因. 科学通报, 2010, 55: 3116-3121
[16]  15. 丁仲礼, 段晓男, 葛全胜, 等. 2050 年大气CO2 浓度控制: 各国排放权计算. 中国科学D 辑: 地球科学, 2009, 39: 1009-1027

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133