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科学通报  2011 

2011年3月日本福岛核泄漏物质输运扩散路径的情景模拟和预测

, PP. 887-894

Keywords: 核泄漏,输运扩散,大气和海洋通道,预测

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Abstract:

2011年3月受日本以东地震和海啸影响,日本福岛核电站发生核物质泄漏.本文提出泄漏物质自然输运的3种通道大气快速输运通道、海洋表层慢速输运通道和海洋内部极慢速输运通道.基于短期气候预测模式和海洋环流数值模式,在理想假设条件下,对核泄漏物质的输运扩散路径进行了情景模拟和预测.结果显示若泄漏源设置在近地层992hPa,10d后影响范围可达北美大部地区,但浓度比所设置的源区浓度低约6个量级,15d后可影响到欧洲,20d后前锋进入中国西部地区,30d后则布满整个纬带;若泄漏源在5km高度,泄漏10d后影响范围可覆盖欧洲,15d即可布满整个纬带;若泄漏源在10km高度,10d后即可影响中国大部分区域.核泄漏物质通过海洋表层通道向东输运则缓慢得多,50d后到达150°E左右,且影响范围仅在一条狭窄条带内.大气通道影响范围巨大,甚至可到达赤道海域上空,但核泄漏物质的浓度很快降低.大气环流上游如北美和欧洲的大气质量监测结果对中国具有重要的参考价值.

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