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科学通报  2011 

DEMETER耦合气候模式对西北太平洋台风活动及其影响因子的预测效能

, PP. 2725-2731

Keywords: 台风预测,耦合气候模式,统计降尺度,集合预测,DEMETER

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Abstract:

利用耦合气候模式实现一步法预测是气候预测的重要发展方向之一.该研究基于欧洲多模式短期气候集合预测计划(DEMETER)6个耦合气候模式1974~2001年回报试验结果,首先探讨了耦合气候模式对夏季(6~10月)西北太平洋台风发生密切相关的6个主要气候因子的预测性能,在此基础上,利用这6个气候因子与台风发生频次的统计关系,研究了耦合气候模式对西北太平洋台风频次变化的预测技巧.结果显示,DEMETER6个耦合气候模式可以较好地预测影响台风频次的主要气候因子及台风频次本身的变化特征.进一步的对比研究发现,这种统计降尺度与耦合模式相结合的预测方法明显好于耦合气候模式的直接预测效能.此外,多模式集合平均表现出最优的预测性能.可见,采用多模式集合与统计降尺度相结合的预测方法可以大大提升耦合气候模式的预测技巧,它将成为未来台风预测的重要方向.

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