全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
科学通报  2012 

我国未来冬季降水会增加吗?北极夏季无海冰情景时的模拟试验

, PP. 759-764

Keywords: 自由北极,海冰,气候变化,东亚冬季风,冬季降水

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

近年来,我国冬季北方的暴雪经常发生,造成了很大的经济损失,也引起了广泛的关注.尤其引发一个重要科学问题未来全球变暖情景下,我国冬季降水是否会显著增加从而导致北方的暴雪更多的发生.本文利用CMIP3模式在IPCCA1B情景下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季(September)无海冰时的一种情景,即“FreeArctic”.利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式,来对北极夏季无海冰时的东亚各季节气候做出数值模拟.试验结果表明,此时的冬季(DJF)全球表面气温有显著的不同程度的升高,升温幅度最大的区域是在北极地区和亚洲、北美洲的高纬地区.西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压均减弱,东亚冬季风减弱.但是,由于来自北方的水汽输送的加强,我国冬季从南到北降水增多.由于增暖的协同作用,我国北方未来寒潮的概率有可能减少;北方部分地区降雪有可能增加,因为降雪的温度条件是基本满足的.

References

[1]  1 黄荣辉, 陈际龙, 周连童, 等. 关于中国重大气候灾害与东亚气候系统之间关系的研究. 大气科学, 2003, 27: 770-787
[2]  2 Qin D H, Liu S Y, Li P J. Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western China. J Clim, 2006, 19:1820-1833??
[3]  4 Comiso J, Parkinson C, Gersten R, et al. Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35: L01703??
[4]  5 IPCC. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007
[5]  6 Wang M, Overland J. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L07502??
[6]  8 Overland J, Wang M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 2010, 62:1-9
[7]  9 方之芳. 北半球副热带高压与极地海冰的相互作用. 科学通报, 1986, 31: 286-289
[8]  10 武炳义, 黄荣辉, 高登义. 与北大西洋接壤的北极海冰和年际气候变化. 科学通报, 2000, 45: 1993-1997
[9]  11 周波涛, 王会军. Hadley 环流变化与白令海海冰异常的关系. 科学通报, 2007, 53: 2194-2198
[10]  13 武炳义, 黄荣辉. 冬季北极喀拉海, 巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响. 大气科学, 1999, 23: 267-275
[11]  20 Jiang D B, Wang H J, Drange H, et al. Last Glacial Maximum over China: Sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice sheet. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108: 4102??
[12]  21 Wang H J, Bi X Q. The east asian monsoon simulation with IAP AGCMs-a composite study. Adv Atmos Sci, 1996, 13: 260-264??
[13]  3 Stroeve J, Serreze M, Drobot S, et al. Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007. EOS, 2008, 89: 13-14??
[14]  7 Kurtz N, Markus T, Farrell S, et al. Observations of recent Arctic sea ice volume loss and its impact on ocean-atmosphere energy exchange and ice production. J Geophys Res, 2011, 116: C04015
[15]  12 武炳义, 卞林根, 张人禾. 冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响. 极地研究, 2004, 16: 211-220
[16]  14 Sewall J, Sloan L. Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L06209??
[17]  15 Manak D, Mysak L. On the relationship between Arctic sea-lce anomalies and fluctuations in Northern Canadian air temperature and river discharge. Atmos-Ocean, 1989, 27: 682-691??
[18]  16 Zeng Q C, Yuan C G, Zhang X H, et al. A global grid-point general circulation model. J Meteor Soc Jpn, 1987(Spec Vol): 421-430??
[19]  17 Zhang X H. Dynamical framework of IAP nine-level atmospheric general circulation model. Adv Atmos Sci, 1990, 7: 66-77
[20]  18 Liang X Z. Description of a nine-level grid point atmospheric general circulation model. Adv Atmos Sci, 1996, 13: 269-298??
[21]  19 Zhu Y L, Wang H J, Zhou W, et al. Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Clim Dyn, 2011, 36: 1463-1473??
[22]  22 马洁华, 王会军, 张颖. 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7: 178-183
[23]  23 李巧萍, 丁一汇. 区域气候模式对东亚冬季风多年平均特征的模拟. 应用气象学报, 2005, 16: 30-40
[24]  24 丁一汇. 东亚冬季风的统计研究. 热带气象, 1990, 6: 119-128

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133