全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
科学通报  2012 

中国气候干湿变化及气候带边界演变:以集成土壤湿度为指标

, PP. 2740-2754

Keywords: 土壤湿度,气候干湿,气候区划,气候区界线

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

依据观测气象资料驱动的陆面模式模拟土壤湿度,比较评估了25个全球耦合气候模式的模拟土壤湿度,选择其均值和趋势与陆面模式模拟均呈正相关的11个数据集.采用多模式权重平均法集成了中国区域两种气候情景1900~2099年的土壤湿度.以集成土壤湿度为指标,分析中国区域199年气候干湿变化的时空特征,区划干湿气候带,分析干湿区边界的演变特征.结果表明总体上典型干旱区土壤湿度呈增加趋势,湿润区变化不显著,干湿过渡带土壤湿度变化最剧烈,呈显著干旱化趋势.干湿气候带边界线演变表明半干旱区扩张,半湿润区收缩是两种情景下我国干湿气候带演变的典型特征.其中20世纪30°N以北的半干旱区面积与1970~1999年平均半干旱区面积比较扩大了11.5%,即使考虑湿润区向半湿润区的转变,与1970~1999年平均面积相比,半湿润区面积缩小也达9.8%.21世纪A1B情景下干湿区界线的变化保持了同样的趋势,但强度明显大于20世纪.因此未来干旱化扩张影响下的区域生态环境变化和人类适应问题需要深入关注.

References

[1]  1 张庆云, 陈烈庭. 近30年来中国气候的干湿变化. 大气科学, 1991, 5: 72-81
[2]  2 苏明峰, 王会军. 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2006, 10: 951-958
[3]  3 Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J M, et al. Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol, 2004, 79: 81-91??
[4]  9 左志燕, 张人禾. 中国东部夏季降水与春季土壤湿度的联系. 科学通报, 2007, 14: 1722-1724
[5]  10 Xiao J F, Zhuang Q L, Liang E Y, et al. Twentieth-century droughts and their impacts on terrestrial carbon cycling in China. Earth Int, 2009, 13: 1-31
[6]  12 张强, 肖风劲, 牛海山, 等. 我国北方植被指数对土壤湿度的敏感性分析. 生态学杂志, 2005, 7: 715-718
[7]  13 王磊, 文军, 韦志刚, 等. 中国西北区西部土壤湿度及其气候响应. 高原气象, 2008, 6: 1257-1266
[8]  14 左志燕, 张人禾. 中国东部春季土壤湿度的时空变化特征. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2008, 38: 1428-1437
[9]  15 郭维栋, 马柱国, 姚永红. 近50年中国北方土壤湿度的区域演变特征. 地理学报, 2003, 58: 83-90
[10]  16 孙丞虎, 李维京, 张祖强, 等. 淮河流域冬春季土壤温湿度异常对夏季降水的影响及其应用的研究. 气象学报, 2005, 1: 115-122
[11]  17 张秀芝, 吴迅英, 何金海. 中国土壤湿度的垂直变化特征. 气象学报, 2004, 62: 51-61
[12]  19 Kerr Y H. Soil moisture from space: Where are we? Hydrogeol J, 2007, 15: 117-120
[13]  20 杜川利, 刘晓东. CLM3模拟的1979-2003年中国土壤湿度及其对全球变暖的可能响应. 高原气象, 2008, 3: 463-473
[14]  22 李明星, 马柱国, 牛国跃. 中国区域土壤湿度变化的时空特征模拟研究. 科学通报, 2011, 56: 1288-1300
[15]  24 Wang A H, Lettenmaier D P, Sheffield J. Soil moisture drought in China, 1950-2006. J Clim, 2010, 24: 3257-3271
[16]  26 Robock A, Schlosser C A, Vinnikov K Y, et al. Evaluation of the AMIP soil moisture simulations. Glob Planet Change, 1998, 19: 181-208??
[17]  28 Krishnamurti T N, Kishtawal C M, Larow T E, et al. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 1999, 285: 1548-1550??
[18]  29 Barnston A G, Mason S J, Goddard L, et al. Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2003, 84: 1783-1796??
[19]  30 Palmer T N, Alessandri A, Andersen U, et al. Development of a european multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2004, 85: 853-872??
[20]  31 Guo Z C, Dirmeyer P A, Gao X, et al. Improving the quality of simulated soil moisture with a multi-model ensemble approach. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc, 2007, 133: 731-747??
[21]  33 Sheffield J, Wood E F. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn, 2008, 31: 79-105
[22]  37 Frei A, Gong G. Decadal to century scale trends in north american snow extent in coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023394
[23]  38 Randall D A, Wood R A, Bony S, et al. Cilmate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution Of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, NY (US): Cambridge University Press, 2007. 597-599
[24]  39 Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood E F. Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. J Clim, 2006, 19: 3088-3111??
[25]  40 Dai Y J, Zeng X B, Dickinson R E, et al. The common land model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2003, 84: 1013-1023??
[26]  43 Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T. A global dataset of palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol, 2004, 5: 1117-1130??
[27]  44 Mahfouf J F, Manzi A O, Noilhan J, et al. The land-surface scheme ISBA within the meteo-france climate model ARPEGE. Part I. Implementation and preliminary-results. J Clim, 1995, 8: 2039-2057??
[28]  48 Hagemann S, Gates L D. Validation of the hydrological cycle of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses using the MPI hydrological discharge model. J Geophys Res, 2001, 106: 1503-1510??
[29]  49 Schulz J P, Dumenil L, Polcher J. On the land surface-atmosphere coupling and its impact in a single-column atmospheric model. J Appl Meteorol, 2001, 40: 642-663??
[30]  50 Roeckner E, Brokopf R, Esch M, et al. Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J Clim, 2006, 19: 3771-3791??
[31]  53 Krinner G, Viovy N, De Noblet-Ducoudre N, et al. A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Glob Biogeochem Cycle, 2005, 19, doi: 10.1029/2003GB002199
[32]  54 Sellers P J, Mintz Y, Sud Y C, et al. A simple biosphere model (SIB) for use within general circulation models. J Atmos Sci, 1986, 43: 505-531??
[33]  55 Sato N, Sellers P J, Randall D A, et al. Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model in a general-circulation model. J Atmos Sci, 1989, 46: 2757-2782??
[34]  57 Miller J R, Russell G L, Caliri G. Continental-scale river flow in climate models. J Clim, 1994, 7: 914-928??
[35]  58 Oleson K W, Bonan G B, Feddema J. Effects of white roofs on urban temperature in a global climate model. Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37, doi: 10.1029/2009GL042194
[36]  61 Ma Z, Dan L, Hu Y. The extreme dry/wet events in northern china during recent 100 years. J Geogr Sci, 2004, 14: 275-281??
[37]  62 Yang J P, Ding Y J, Chen R S, et al. Fluctuations of the semi-arid zone in china, and consequences for society. Clim Change, 2005, 72: 171-188??
[38]  64 张强, 潘学标, 马柱国, 等. 干旱. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009. 192-195
[39]  4 杨建平, 丁永建, 陈仁升, 等. 近50年来中国干湿气候界线的10年际波动. 地理学报, 2002, 6: 655-661
[40]  5 马柱国, 符淙斌. 中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征. 地球物理学报, 2005, 48: 519-525
[41]  6 刘波, 马柱国. 过去45年中国干湿气候区域变化特征. 干旱区地理, 2007, 1: 7-15
[42]  7 Yeh T C, Wetherald R T, Manabe S. The effect of soil-moisture on the short-term climate and hydrology change—A numerical experiment. Mon Weather Rev, 1984, 112: 474-490??
[43]  8 Koster R D, Dirmeyer P A, Guo Z C, et al. Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 2004, 305: 1138-1140??
[44]  11 Lovett R A. Global warming-rain might be leading carbon sink factor. Science, 2002, 296: 1787??
[45]  18 Robock A, Vinnikov K Y, Srinivasan G, et al. The global soil moisture data bank. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2000, 81: 1281-1299??
[46]  21 李明星, 马柱国, 杜继稳. 区域土壤湿度模拟检验和趋势分析——以陕西省为例. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2010, 40: 363-379
[47]  23 Wu Z Y, Lu G H, Wen L, et al. Reconstructing and analyzing China’s fifty-nine year (1951-2009) drought history using hydrological model simulation. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci, 2011, 15: 2881-2894??
[48]  25 Meehl G A, Covey C, Delworth T, et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset—A new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2007, 88: 1383-1394??
[49]  27 Li H B, Robock A, Wild M. Evaluation of intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment soil moisture simulations for the second half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res, 2007, 112, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007455
[50]  32 Gao X, Dirmeyer P A. A multimodel analysis, validation, and transferability study of global soil wetness products. J Hydrometeorol, 2006, 7: 1218-1236??
[51]  34 Wetherald R T, Manabe S. Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming. J Geophys Res, 2002, 107, doi: 10.1029/2001JD001195
[52]  35 Wang G L. Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Clim Dyn, 2005, 25: 739-753??
[53]  36 Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, NY (US): Cambridge University Press, 2000. 6-10
[54]  41 Oleson K W, Niu G Y, Yang Z L, et al. Improvements to the Community Land Model and their impact on the hydrological cycle. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113, doi: 10.1029/2007JG000563
[55]  42 Li M X, Ma Z G. Comparisons of simulations of soil moisture variations in the Yellow River basin driven by various atmospheric forcing data sets. Adv Atmos Sci, 2010, 27: 1289-1302??
[56]  45 Douville H, Royer J F, Mahfouf J F. A new snow parameterization for the meteo-france climate model. Part I. Validation in stand-alone experiments. Clim Dyn, 1995, 12: 21-35??
[57]  46 Douville H, Royer J F, Mahfouf J F. A new snow parameterization for the meteo-france climate model. Part II. Validation in a 3-D GCM experiment. Clim Dyn, 1995, 12: 37-52
[58]  47 Oki T, Sud Y C. Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP)—A global river channel network. Earth Interact, 1998, 2: 1-37
[59]  51 Roeckner E, B?uml G, Bonaventura L. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5: Part I: Model description. Max-Planck- Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 55 D-20146 Hamburg Germany, 2003. 35-43
[60]  52 Essery R, Pomeroy J, Parviainen J, et al. Sublimation of Snow from coniferous forests in a climate model. J Clim, 2003, 16: 1855-1864??
[61]  56 Abramopoulos F, Rosenzweig C, Choudhury B. Improved ground hydrology calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil water movement and evapotranspiration. J Clim, 1988, 1: 921-941??
[62]  59 Oleson K W, Niu G Y, Yang Z L, et al. Improvements to the community land model and their impact on the hydrological cycle. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113, doi: 10.1029/2007JG000563
[63]  60 马柱国, 符淙斌. 1951-2004年我国北方干旱化的基本事实. 科学通报, 2006, 51: 2429-2439
[64]  63 毛飞, 孙涵, 杨红龙. 干湿气候区划研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30: 17-26

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133