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科学通报  2012 

“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设

DOI: 10.1360/972012-691, PP. 3421-3433

Keywords: 风险决策,期望法则,比例决策任务,概率决策任务,算术,概率能力,人格

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Abstract:

风险决策主流理论以期望法则的计算为核心假设,认为决策者需要进行“加权求和”的期望值计算过程.为检验这一基本假设,本研究采用相同的视觉材料设计了两类任务将“%”看成“概率”的概率决策任务(风险决策)和将“%”看成“比例”的比例决策任务(计算决策).两任务均要求被试选择自己偏好的选项.考虑到被试在比例决策任务中须执行“加权求和”的期望值计算,方能使其收益最大化,我们推测,若被试在概率决策任务中也是根据“加权求和”规则做出决策,我们应当会发现影响“期望值计算”的诸因素(如计算难度、算术能力)同时影响两类任务.结果发现计算难度和算术能力只影响比例决策任务绩效(其反应时更长,基于期望值选择的比例更高),但不影响概率决策任务绩效.相反,与“期望值计算”无关的“概率能力”和“感觉寻求人格”只影响概率决策任务绩效,但不影响比例决策任务绩效.该结果表明,概率能力和人格对风险决策的行为绩效起调节作用,人们在风险决策中可能并未按照期望法则的精确计算方式做出决策.期望法则家族理论将“加权求和”结果作为人类风险偏好的单一指数,或许是一种人为创造的错误指数.

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