1 Zhu K Z. Southeast monsoon and precipitation over China (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 1934, 1: 1-28 [竺可桢. 东亚季风与中国降水. 地理学报, 1934, 1: l-
[2]
2 National Bureau of Statistics of China. Report of the damage caused by disaster in China. (in Chinese). Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1995. 406 [国家统计局. 1949~1995中国灾情报告. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1995.
[3]
3 Central Meteorology Bureau. Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period (in Chinese). Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House, 1981. 1-332 [中央气象局气象科学研究院. 中国近五百年旱涝分布图集. 北京: 地图出版社, 1981. 1-
[4]
4 Zhang D. The method for reconstruction of climate series for the last 500 years and its reliability (in Chinese). In: Central Meteorology Bureau, ed. Collected Papers of Meteorology Science and Technology. Beijing: Meteorology Press, 1983, 4. 17-26 [张德二. 重建近五百年气候序列的方法及其可靠性. 国家气象局气象科学研究院. 气象科学技术集刊(气候与旱涝). 北京: 气象出版社, 1983, 4. 17-
[5]
5 Zhang D, Liu C Z. Supplement of Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period (1980-1992) (in Chinese). Meterol Monthly, 1993, 19: 41-45 [张德二, 刘传志. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980-1992). 气象, 1993, 19: 41-
[6]
6 Zhang D. Supplement of Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period, 1993-2000 (in Chinese). J Appl Meteorol Sci, 2003,14: 379-389 [张德二, 李小泉, 梁有叶. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993-2000年). 应用气象学报, 2003, 14: 379-
[7]
14 Gong D Y, Ho C H. Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett, 2002, 29: 1-4
[8]
7 Wang S W, Zhao Z C. An analyses of historical data of droughts and floods in last 500 years in China (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 1979, 34: 329-341 [王绍武, 赵宗慈. 近五百年我国旱涝史料分析. 地理学报, 1979, 34: 329-
[9]
8 Qian W H, Chen D, Shen H Y. Temporal and spatial variability of dryness/wetness in China during the last 530 years . Theor Appl Climatol, 2003, 76: 13-29
[10]
9 Zhang X G. Analysis of drought index for the last 500-year in East China. In: Bulletin of Climatic Change in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 1981, 1. 46-51 [张先恭. 中国东半部近500年干旱指数的分析. 见: 中国气候变化学术讨论会文集. 北京: 科学出版社, 1981, 1. 46-
[11]
10 Zhu Y F. The regional division of dryness/wetness over eastern China and variations of dryness/wetness in northern China during the last 530 years (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 2003, 58: 100-107 [朱亚芬. 530年来中国东部旱涝分区段北方旱涝演变. 地理学报, 2003, 58: 100-
[12]
11 Huang R H, Xu Y H, Zhou L T. The interdecadal variation of summer precipitation in China and the drought trend in North China (in Chinese). Plateau Meteor, 1999, 18: 465-476 [黄荣辉, 徐予红, 周连童. 我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势. 高原气象, 1999, 18: 465-
[13]
12 Chang C P, Zhang Y, Li T. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim, 2000, 13: 4310-4325
[14]
13 Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Sun Y. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences. Int J Climatol, 2008, 28: 1139-1161
[15]
15 Cook E R, Anchukaitis K J, Buckley B M, et al. Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science, 2010, 328: 486-489
[16]
16 Feng S, Hu Q, Wu Q. et al. A gridded reconstruction of warm season precipitation for Asia spanning the past half millennium. J Clim, 2013, 26: 2192-2204
[17]
17 Parsons J B. The Peasant Rebellions of the Late Ming Dynasty. Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1970
[18]
18 Shen C M, Wang W C, Hao Z X, et al. Exception drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries. Clim Change, 2007, 85: 453-471
[19]
19 Wang S W, Zhao Z C. The 36-year wetness oscillation in China and its mechanism (in Chinese). Acta Meteor Sin, 1979, 37: 64-73 [王绍武, 赵宗慈. 我国旱涝36年周期及其产生的机制. 气象学报, 1979, 37: 64-
[20]
20 Zhu Y M, Yang X Q. Relationships between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and climate variabilities in China (in Chinese). Acta Meteor Sin, 2003, 61: 641-654 [朱益民, 杨修群. 太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系. 气象学报, 2003, 61: 641-
[21]
21 Zhu J H, Wang S W. 80-a oscillation of summer rainfall over the east part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18: 1043-1051
[22]
22 Huang G, Yan Z W. The East Asia summer monsoon circulation anomaly index and its interannual variations. Chin Sci Bull, 1999, 44: 421-424 [黄刚, 严中伟. 东亚夏季风环流异常指数及其年际变化. 科学通报, 1999, 44: 1325-
[23]
23 Yan Z W, Tu K. Climatic jumps and precipitation extremes in drying North China. In: Liu Y H, ed. Climate Change and Scientific and Technology Innovation (in Chinese). Beijing: Scientific Press, 2009. 468 [严中伟, 涂锴. 近几十年华北干旱化进程中的降水极值和跃变. 见: 刘燕华, 主编. 气候变化和科技创新. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009.
[24]
24 Tu K, Yan Z W, Dong W. Climatic jumps in precipitation and extremes in drying North China during 1954-2006. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2010, 88: 29-42
[25]
25 Ma Z G, Shao L J. Relationship between dry/wet variation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in northern China during the last 100 years (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2006, 30: 464-475 [马柱国, 邵丽娟. 中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 大气科学, 2006, 30: 464-
[26]
26 Ma Z G. The interdecadal dry/wet trend and shift of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull, 2007, 52: 1199-1206 [马柱国. 华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 科学通报, 2007, 52: 1199-
[27]
27 Yu L, Tore F, Odd H O, et al. Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China: A comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model. Clim Dyn, 2014, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2141-5
[28]
28 MacDonald G M, Case R A. Variations in the Pacific decadal oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32: L08703
[29]
29 Biondi F, Gershunov A, Cayan D R. North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. J Clim, 2001, 14: 5-10
[30]
30 D'Arrigo R, Villalba R, Wiles G. Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Clim Dyn, 2001,18: 219-224
[31]
31 Gedalof Z, Smith D J. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophys Res Lett, 2001, 28: 1515-1518
[32]
32 Linsley B K, Wellington G M, Schrag D P. Decadal sea surface temperature variability in the sub-tropical South Pacific from 1726 to 1997 A D. Science, 2000, 290: 1145-1148
[33]
33 Mantua N J, Hare S R. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J Oceanogr, 2002, 58: 35-44
[34]
34 Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, et al. Dry/wet changes and their durative characteristics in China during the past 530 years (in Chinese). Acta Meteor Sin, 2009, 67: 307-310 [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 等. 中国近530年干湿变化及其持续性特征研究. 气象学报, 2009, 67: 307-
[35]
35 Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, et al. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 78: 1069-1079
[36]
38 Huang N E, Wu Z. A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: Method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev Geophys, 2008, 46: RG2006
[37]
36 Buell E C. On the physical interpretation of empirical orthogonal functions. Preprints, 6th Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Science. Banff, Alberta: American Meteorological Society, 1979. 112-117
[38]
37 Braud I, Obled C H, Phamdinhtuan A. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of spatial random fields: Theory, accuracy of the numerical approximations and sampling effects. Stochastic Hydrol Hydraul, 1993, 7: 146-160
[39]
39 Wu Z H, Schneider E K, Kirtman B P, et al. The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. Clim Dyn, 2008, 31: 823-841
[40]
40 Huang N E, Shen Z, Long S R, et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time series analysis. Proc Roy Soc Lond A, 1998, 454: 903-995
[41]
41 Wu Z H, Huang N E. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition a noise-assisted data analysis method. Adv Adapt Data Anal, 2009, 1: 1-41
[42]
42 Qian C, Fu C, Wu Z, et al. On the secular change of spring onset at Stockholm. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L12706
[43]
43 Qian C. A new method for the formation of climate anomaly reference frame and its validation and application (in Chinese). Doctoral Dissertation. Beijing: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, 2009. 13-24 [钱诚. 一个建立气候距平参照系的新方法及其检验和应用. 博士学位论文. 北京: 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 2009. 13-
[44]
44 Yan Z W. Interdecadal oscillation of precipitation in North China and its relation with global temperature change (in Chinese). J Appl Meteor Sci, 1999, 10 (Suppl): 12-22 [严中伟. 华北降水年代际振荡及其与全球温度变化的联系. 应用气象学报, 1999, 10(增刊): 12-
[45]
45 Gray S T, Graumlich L J, Betancourt J L, et al. A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 AD. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L12205
[46]
46 Kerr R A. A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science, 2000, 288: 1984-1985
[47]
47 Zheng J Y, Shao X M, Hao Z X, et al. An overview of research on climate change in China during the past 2000 years (in Chinese). Geogr Res, 2010, 29: 1561-1570 [郑景云, 邵雪梅, 郝志新, 等. 过去2000年中国气候变化研究. 地理研究, 2010, 29: 1561-
[48]
48 Yang B, Kang S, Ljungqvist F C, et al. Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia. Clim Dyn, 2013, 10: 1-15
[49]
49 Xu G C, Yao H, Li S. The present climate change in arid and semi-arid regions of China (in Chinese). Quat Res, 1997, 2: 105-114 [徐国昌, 姚辉, 李珊. 中国干旱半干旱区当代气候变化. 第四纪研究, 1997, 2: 105-
[50]
50 Ye D Z. Research of global change in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Meteorology Press, 1992. 24-59 [叶笃正. 中国的全球变化预研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1992. 24-
[51]
51 Yan Z W, Li Z Y, Wang X C. An analysis of decadal-to-century-scale climatic jumps in history (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1993, 17: 663-672 [严中伟, 李兆元, 王晓春. 历史上10年到100年尺度气候跃变的分析. 大气科学, 1993, 17: 663-
[52]
52 Zheng J Y, Wang W C, Ge Q S, et al. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci, 2006, 17: 579-592
[53]
53 Qian C, Zhou T J. Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010. J Clim, 2014, 27: 1210-1222
[54]
54 Zhou T J, Song F F, Lin R P, et al. The 2012 north China floods: Explaining an extreme rainfall event in the context of a long-term drying tendency [in “Explaining extreme event of 2012 from a climate perspective”]. Bull Amer Meteor Sci, 2013, 94: S49-S51
[55]
55 Shen C M, Wang W C, Gong W, et al. A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L03702