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近50年陕北地区的气候变化

, PP. 262-267

Keywords: 气候变化,降水量,气温,变化趋势,陕北

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Abstract:

通过累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析等方法,对陕北地区近50年来的气候变化多尺度和跃变(突变)现象进行了分析。结果表明近50年来,陕北地区年平均气温有上升趋势,变化倾向率为0.296℃/10a,年平均气温在1994-1995年发生了由低温到高温的突变;陕北地区年降水量呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-12.455mm/10a,年降水量在1974-1975年和2000年都发生了由少到多的突变。Morlet小波分析表明,陕北年平均气温存在25年的强显著周期,此外还有4年、5~10年不等的小尺度周期变化;陕北年降水存在24年、7年、5年和3年的显著周期,且大周期尺度比小周期尺度更为显著。陕北气候暖干化的原因主要是海-气相互作用的大气环流因子,此外,城市化因素对气候的影响也应引起重视。

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