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基于换电和电池租赁模式的纯电动汽车运营成本评估及预测研究

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Keywords: 电动汽车,动力电池,租赁模式,运营价格

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Abstract:

在纯电动汽车示范运营中,动力电池运营价格测算是开展电池租赁模式的重要前提,目前尚无成熟方法并缺少可靠数据。本文运用成本加成定价法和年金法,在裸车销售,电池租赁模式下,在充换电站建设、运营和电池租赁由两个主体承担的条件下,对电池运营价格进行了测算;同时,应用影响因素敏感性分析方法,结合北京市纯电动公交车实际运营数据,分析了电池系统价格、贴现率、年人工成本、年充电量和充电基础设施初期投资等因素对动力电池运营价格的影响,得出电池价格和充电量是影响运营价格的最敏感因素。根据连续4年的小型成熟二次锂电池价格历史数据和燃油价格趋势,预测并比较了未来几个四年电动汽车和传统汽车的运营费用,最终提出了未来电动汽车产业发展的建议。

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