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基于PairCopula的随机潮流三点估计法

, PP. 121-128

Keywords: Pair,Copula,多维相关性,概率积分变换,点估计法,随机潮流

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Abstract:

现有Copula等方法难以对多维风电功率准确建模,且传统的点估计法无法直接应用于风电功率具有相关性的场合。针对这一问题,提出基于PairCopula和概率积分变换的随机潮流点估计法。首先采用PairCopula对多维风电功率进行建模,然后使用点估计法在独立正态概率空间中采样,最后,依据概率积分变换,把采样点变换到实际风电功率的概率空间中进行潮流计算,从而使点估计法能够处理具有任意概率分布的多维风电功率。对澳大利亚多个风电场出力样本的建模和分析验证了PairCopula模型的优越性,基于IEEE118节点系统的算例验证了所提方法的有效性。

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