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基于证据推理的电力负荷建模

, PP. 89-95

Keywords: 电力负荷模型,信息融合,证据推理,在线仿真,预测仿真

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Abstract:

从信息融合的角度提出一种新的电力负荷建模方法。首先,以证据推理算法为基本理论工具,在传统分类建模方法的基础上提出一种面向不同应用环境的电力负荷建模方法框架;其次,基于证据推理算法建立具体的电力负荷模型,通过对不同来源、不同层次、不同时间的电力负荷信息的融合利用,以更准确地描述负荷特性的复杂变化规律;再次,详细讨论了证据体的选择及基本信度分配等具体问题;最后,通过算例说明了所提方法在在线仿真分析和预测仿真分析两种应用环境下的有效性。

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