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近50年台湾东部台风强降雨事件的强度与频率变化特征

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.01.007, PP. 46-55

Keywords: 阶段变化,频率,强度,趋势变化,台风强降雨,台湾东部

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Abstract:

本研究以曾发布台风警报和最大24小时降雨量不小于50mm为标准,分别在台湾东部的宜兰、花莲、成功、台东、大武、兰屿等6处测候站1960-2009年的观测资料中,界定出117~151次不等的台风强降雨事件,并取最大24小时降雨量和年次数为强度与频率指标,采用非母数统计验证方法,检视各测候站研究年期内台风强降雨事件之强度和频率序列的趋势变化与阶段变化。分析结果显示,整体而言研究区内台风强降雨事件的降雨强度无显著的变化,但发生频率在1980-1990年间出现跃升之现象。由于晚近台风强降雨事件的发生频率较以往为高,致灾风险相对提升,未来台湾东部地区防灾意识的强化和因应能力的固实有其必要性。

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