Ahas R, Jaagus J, Aasa A. The phenological calendar ofEstonia and its correlation with mean air temperature. InternationalJournal of Biometeorology, 2000, 44(4):159-166.
[2]
Badeck F W, Bondeau A, Bottcher K, et al. Responses ofspring phenology to climate change. New Phytologist,2004, 162(2): 295-309.
[3]
McBratney A B, Mendonca Santos M L, Minasny B. Ondigital soil mapping. Geoderma, 2003, 117(1-2): 3-52.
[4]
Menzel A, Sparks T H, Estrella N, et al. European phenologicalresponse to climate change matches the warmingpattern. Global Change Biology, 2006, 12(10):1969-1976.
[5]
White M A, Thornton P E, Running S W. A continentalphenology model for monitoring vegetation responses tointerannual climatic variability. Global BiogeochemicalCycles, 1997,11(2): 217-234.
[6]
Menzel A and Fabian P. Growing season extended in Europe.Nature, 1999, 397(6721): 659-659.
[7]
Myneni R B, Keeling C D, Tucker C J, et al. Increasedplant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to1991. Nature, 1997, 386(6626): 698-702.
[8]
Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z, et al. Land surface phenologydynamics and climate variations in the North EastChina Transect (NECT), 1982-2000. International Journalof Remote Sensing, 2008, 29(19): 5461-5478.
[9]
White M A, de Beurs K M, Didan K, et al. Intercomparison,interpretation, and assessment of spring phenologyin North America estimated from remote sensing for1982-2006. Global Change Biology, 2009, 15(10):2335-2359.
[10]
Zhang X, Friedl M A, Schaaf C B, et al. Climate controlson vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- andhigh latitudes inferred from MODIS data. Global ChangeBiology, 2004, 10(7): 1133-1145.
[11]
Alocilja E C, and Ritchie J T. A model for the phenologyof rice//Hodges T. Predicting Crop Phenology. Boca Raton:CRC Press, 1991: 181-189.
[12]
Roberts E H, Summertield R J. Measurement and predictionof flowering in annual crops//Atherton J G. Manipulationof Flowering. London: Butterworths, 1987: 17-50.
[13]
Tollenaar M, Daynard T B, Hunter R B. Effect of temperatureon rate of leaf appearance and flowering date inmaize. Crop Science, 1979, 19(3): 363-366.
[14]
Kiniry J R, Keener M E. An enzyme kinetic equation toestimate maize development rates. Agronomy Journal,1982, 74(1): 115-119.
[15]
Lehenbauer P A. Growth of maize seedlings in relation totemperature. Physiological Research, 1914, 1(5):247-288.
[16]
Gilmore E C and Rogers J S. Heat units as a method ofmeasuring maturity in corn. Agronomy Journal, 1958, 50(10): 611-615.
[17]
Coelho D T, Dale R F. An energy-crop growth variableand temperature function for predicting corn growth anddevelopment: Planting to silking. Agronomy Journal,1980, 72(3): 503-510.
[18]
Garcia-Huidobro J, Monteith J L, Squire G R. Time, temperatureand germination of pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoidesS. and H.). I. Constant temperature. Journal ofExperimental Biology, 1982, 33(2): 288-296.
[19]
Ferguson J H.A. Empirical estimation of thermoreactioncurves for the rate of development. Euphytica, 1958, 7(2): 140-146.
[20]
Orchard T J. Calculating constant temperature equivalents.Agricultural Meteorology, 1975, 15(3): 405-418.
[21]
Tyldesley J B. A method of evaluating the effect of temperatureon an organism when the response is nonlinear.Agricultural Meteorology, 1978, 19(2): 137-153.
[22]
Johnson I R, Thomley J H M. Temperature dependence ofplant and crop processes. Annals of Botany, 1985, 55(1):1-24.
[23]
Angus J F, Mackenzie D H, Morton R, et al. Phasic developmentin field crops. II: Thermal and photoperiodic responsesof spring wheat. Field Crops Research, 1981, 4(3): 269-283.
[24]
Horie T, Nakagawa H. Modelling and prediction of devel-opment process in rice. I: Structure and method of parameterestimation of a model for simulating developmentprocess toward heading. Japan Journal of Crop Science,1990, 59(4): 687-695.
[25]
Brounwer R, Wit C T. A simulation model of plantgrowth with special attention to root growth and its consequences//Whittington N W J. Root growth. London: Butterworths,1969: 222-224.
[26]
Duncan W G, Baker D N. Simulation of growth and yieldin cotton: II. A computer analysis of the nutritional theory.Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conference, Memphis,TN: National Cotton Council, 1971: 45-61.
[27]
de Wit C T, Goudriaan J, Van Laar H H, et al. Simulationof Assimilation, Respiration and Transpiration of Crops.Wageningen, Netherlands: Pudoc., 1978: 140.
[28]
McMaster G S, Morgan J S, Wihelm W W. Simulatingwinter wheat spikes development and growth. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 1992, 60(3): 193-220.
[29]
Penning de Vries F W T,Van Laar H H. Simulation ofGrowth Processes and the Model BACROS//Penning deVries F W T, Van Laar H H. Simulation of Plant Growthand Crop Production. Wageningen, Netherlands: Pudoc.,1982: 114-135.
[30]
Ritchie J T, Otter S. Description and performance of CERES-Wheat: A user oriented wheat yield model. USDAARS:ARS38, 1985: 159-175..
[31]
曹永华. 美国CERES 作物模拟模型及其应用. 世界农业, 1991(9): 52-55.
[32]
Bouman B A M, Kropff M J, Tuong T P. ORYZA2000:Modeling lowland rice. Los Banos: IRRI and WageningenUniversity, 2001: 235.
Bouman B A M, Van Laar H H. Description and evaluationof the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions. Agricultural Systems, 2006, 87(3): 249-273.
[40]
Das L, Lohar D, Sadhukhan I, et al. Evaluation of the performanceof ORYZA2000 and assessing the impact of climatechange on rice production in Gangetic West Bengal.Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007, 9(1): 1-10.
White M A, Thornton P E, Running S W. A continentalphenology model for monitoring vegetation responses tointerannual climatic variability. Global BiogeochemicalCycles, 1997,11(2): 217-234.
[43]
Menzel A and Fabian P. Growing season extended in Europe.Nature, 1999, 397(6721): 659-659.
[44]
Myneni R B, Keeling C D, Tucker C J, et al. Increasedplant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to1991. Nature, 1997, 386(6626): 698-702.
[45]
Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z, et al. Land surface phenologydynamics and climate variations in the North EastChina Transect (NECT), 1982-2000. International Journalof Remote Sensing, 2008, 29(19): 5461-5478.
[46]
White M A, de Beurs K M, Didan K, et al. Intercomparison,interpretation, and assessment of spring phenologyin North America estimated from remote sensing for1982-2006. Global Change Biology, 2009, 15(10):2335-2359.
[47]
Zhang X, Friedl M A, Schaaf C B, et al. Climate controlson vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- andhigh latitudes inferred from MODIS data. Global ChangeBiology, 2004, 10(7): 1133-1145.
[48]
Sacks W J, Kucharik C J. Crop management and phenologytrends in the U.S. Corn Belt: Impacts on yields, evapotranspirationand energy balance. Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 2011, 151(7): 882-894.
[49]
Shimono H. Earlier rice phenology as a result of climatechange can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductivegrowth in northern Japan. Agriculture. Ecosystems& Environment, 2011, 144(1): 201-207.
[50]
Siebert S. and Ewert F. Spatio-temporal patterns of phenologicaldevelopment in Germany in relation to temperatureand day length. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2012, 152(15): 44-57.
[51]
Vitasse Y, Francois C, Delpierre N, et al. Assessing the effectsof climate change on the phenology of Europeantemperate trees. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2011, 151(7): 969-980.
[52]
Karlsen S R, Hogda K A, Wielgolaski F E, et al. Growing-season trends in Fennoscandia 1982-2006, determinedfrom satellite and phenology data. Climate Research,2009, 39(3): 275-286.
[53]
Morin X, Roy J, Sonie L, et al. Changes in leaf phenologyof three European oak species in response to experimentalclimate change. New Phytologist, 2010, 186(4):900-910.
[54]
Fitter A H. and Fitter R S R. Rapid changes in floweringtime in British plants. Science, 2002, 296(5573):1689-1691.
[55]
Garcia-Mozo H, Mestre A, Galan C, et al. Phenologicaltrends in southern Spain: A response to climate change.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010, 150(4):575-580.
[56]
Menzel A, Estrella N Fabian P. Spatial and temporal variabilityof the phenological seasons in Germany from1951 to 1996. Global Change Biology, 2001, 7(6):657-666.
[57]
Sparks T H and Carey P D. The responses of species toclimate over two centuries: An analysis of the Marshamphenological record, 1736-1947. Journal of Ecology, 1995, 83(2): 321-329.
[58]
Chuine I, Cambon G, Comtois P. Scaling phenology fromthe local to the regional level: advances from species-specificphenological models. Global Change Biology, 2000,6(8): 943-952.
[59]
van Oort P A J, Zhang T Y, de Vries M E, et al. Correlationbetween temperature and phenology prediction errorin rice (Oryza sativa L.). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2011, 151(12): 1545-1555.
[60]
Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau D D. Selecting models to predictthe timing of flowering of temperate trees: implicationsfor tree phenology modelling. Plant Cell and Environment,1999, 22(1): 1-13.
[61]
Streck N A, de Paula F L M, Bisognin D A, et al. Simulatingthe development of field grown potato (Solanum tuberosumL.). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007,142(1): 1-11.
[62]
Andrej C, Zalika C, Lucka K, et al. The simulation of phenologicaldevelopment in dynamic crop model: TheBayesian comparison of different methods. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 2011, 151(1): 101-115.
[63]
Chmielewski F M, Rotzer T. Response of tree phenologyto climate change across Europe. Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 2001, 108(2): 101-112.
[64]
Zhang T Y, Zhu J, Yang X G, Non-stationary thermaltime accumulation reduces the predictability of climatechange effects on agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2008, 148(10): 1412-1418.
[65]
Kimura M and Minami K. Dynamics of methane in ricefields: Emissions to the atmosphere in Japan and Thailand//Peng S, Ingram K T, Neue H U et al. ClimateChange and Rice. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1995: 30-45.
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Yoshida S. Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science. Los Banos,Philippines: International Rice Research Institute,1981: 269.
Horie T, Centeno G S, Nakagawa H, et al. Effect of elevatedcarbon dioxide and climate change on rice productionin East and Southeast Asia//Oshima Y. Proceedingsof the International Scientific Symposium on Asian PaddyFields. Saskatchewan, Canada: University of Saskatchewan,1997: 913-967.
[69]
Kropff M J, Centeno G S, Bachelet D, et al. Predictingthe impact of CO2 and temperature on rice production//IRRI Seminar Series on Climate Change and Rice. InternationalRice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines,1993.
[70]
Matthews R B, Kropff M J, Horie T, et al. Simulating theimpact of climate change on rice production in Asia andevaluating options for adaptation. Agricultural Systems,1997, 54(3): 399-425.
[71]
Alocilja E C, and Ritchie J T. A model for the phenologyof rice//Hodges T. Predicting Crop Phenology. Boca Raton:CRC Press, 1991: 181-189.
[72]
Roberts E H, Summertield R J. Measurement and predictionof flowering in annual crops//Atherton J G. Manipulationof Flowering. London: Butterworths, 1987: 17-50.
[73]
Tollenaar M, Daynard T B, Hunter R B. Effect of temperatureon rate of leaf appearance and flowering date inmaize. Crop Science, 1979, 19(3): 363-366.
[74]
Kiniry J R, Keener M E. An enzyme kinetic equation toestimate maize development rates. Agronomy Journal,1982, 74(1): 115-119.
[75]
Lehenbauer P A. Growth of maize seedlings in relation totemperature. Physiological Research, 1914, 1(5):247-288.
[76]
Gilmore E C and Rogers J S. Heat units as a method ofmeasuring maturity in corn. Agronomy Journal, 1958, 50(10): 611-615.
[77]
Coelho D T, Dale R F. An energy-crop growth variableand temperature function for predicting corn growth anddevelopment: Planting to silking. Agronomy Journal,1980, 72(3): 503-510.
[78]
Garcia-Huidobro J, Monteith J L, Squire G R. Time, temperatureand germination of pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoidesS. and H.). I. Constant temperature. Journal ofExperimental Biology, 1982, 33(2): 288-296.
[79]
Ferguson J H.A. Empirical estimation of thermoreactioncurves for the rate of development. Euphytica, 1958, 7(2): 140-146.
Gao L Z, Jin Z Q, Huang Y, et al. Rice clock model: Acomputer model to simulate rice development. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 1992, 60(1-2): 1-16.
[83]
Yin X Y. A nonlinear model to quantify temperature effecton rice phenology and its application. Acta AgronomicaSinica, 1994, 20(6): 692-700.
[84]
Meng Y L, Cao W X, Zhou Z G. A Process-based Modelfor Simulation Phasic Development and Phenology inRice. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2003, 36(11):1362-1367.
[85]
Robertson G W. Development of simplified agroclimaticprocedures for assessing temperature effects on crop development//Slatyer R O. Plant Response to Climatic Factors.Paris: UNESCO, Philippine Weather Bureau, 1973:327-343.
[86]
Bouman B A M, Van Laar H H. Description and evaluationof the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions. Agricultural Systems, 2006, 87(3): 249-273.
[87]
Das L, Lohar D, Sadhukhan I, et al. Evaluation of the performanceof ORYZA2000 and assessing the impact of climatechange on rice production in Gangetic West Bengal.Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007, 9(1): 1-10.
Sacks W J, Kucharik C J. Crop management and phenologytrends in the U.S. Corn Belt: Impacts on yields, evapotranspirationand energy balance. Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 2011, 151(7): 882-894.
[91]
Shimono H. Earlier rice phenology as a result of climatechange can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductivegrowth in northern Japan. Agriculture. Ecosystems& Environment, 2011, 144(1): 201-207.
[92]
Siebert S. and Ewert F. Spatio-temporal patterns of phenologicaldevelopment in Germany in relation to temperatureand day length. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2012, 152(15): 44-57.
[93]
Vitasse Y, Francois C, Delpierre N, et al. Assessing the effectsof climate change on the phenology of Europeantemperate trees. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2011, 151(7): 969-980.
[94]
Karlsen S R, Hogda K A, Wielgolaski F E, et al. Growing-season trends in Fennoscandia 1982-2006, determinedfrom satellite and phenology data. Climate Research,2009, 39(3): 275-286.
[95]
Morin X, Roy J, Sonie L, et al. Changes in leaf phenologyof three European oak species in response to experimentalclimate change. New Phytologist, 2010, 186(4):900-910.
[96]
Fitter A H. and Fitter R S R. Rapid changes in floweringtime in British plants. Science, 2002, 296(5573):1689-1691.
[97]
Garcia-Mozo H, Mestre A, Galan C, et al. Phenologicaltrends in southern Spain: A response to climate change.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010, 150(4):575-580.
[98]
Menzel A, Estrella N Fabian P. Spatial and temporal variabilityof the phenological seasons in Germany from1951 to 1996. Global Change Biology, 2001, 7(6):657-666.
[99]
Sparks T H and Carey P D. The responses of species toclimate over two centuries: An analysis of the Marshamphenological record, 1736-1947. Journal of Ecology, 1995, 83(2): 321-329.
[100]
Chuine I, Cambon G, Comtois P. Scaling phenology fromthe local to the regional level: advances from species-specificphenological models. Global Change Biology, 2000,6(8): 943-952.
[101]
van Oort P A J, Zhang T Y, de Vries M E, et al. Correlationbetween temperature and phenology prediction errorin rice (Oryza sativa L.). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2011, 151(12): 1545-1555.
[102]
Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau D D. Selecting models to predictthe timing of flowering of temperate trees: implicationsfor tree phenology modelling. Plant Cell and Environment,1999, 22(1): 1-13.
[103]
Streck N A, de Paula F L M, Bisognin D A, et al. Simulatingthe development of field grown potato (Solanum tuberosumL.). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007,142(1): 1-11.
[104]
Andrej C, Zalika C, Lucka K, et al. The simulation of phenologicaldevelopment in dynamic crop model: TheBayesian comparison of different methods. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 2011, 151(1): 101-115.
[105]
Chmielewski F M, Rotzer T. Response of tree phenologyto climate change across Europe. Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 2001, 108(2): 101-112.
[106]
Zhang T Y, Zhu J, Yang X G, Non-stationary thermaltime accumulation reduces the predictability of climatechange effects on agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2008, 148(10): 1412-1418.
[107]
Kimura M and Minami K. Dynamics of methane in ricefields: Emissions to the atmosphere in Japan and Thailand//Peng S, Ingram K T, Neue H U et al. ClimateChange and Rice. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1995: 30-45.
[108]
Yoshida S. Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science. Los Banos,Philippines: International Rice Research Institute,1981: 269.
Horie T, Centeno G S, Nakagawa H, et al. Effect of elevatedcarbon dioxide and climate change on rice productionin East and Southeast Asia//Oshima Y. Proceedingsof the International Scientific Symposium on Asian PaddyFields. Saskatchewan, Canada: University of Saskatchewan,1997: 913-967.
[111]
Kropff M J, Centeno G S, Bachelet D, et al. Predictingthe impact of CO2 and temperature on rice production//IRRI Seminar Series on Climate Change and Rice. InternationalRice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines,1993.
[112]
Matthews R B, Kropff M J, Horie T, et al. Simulating theimpact of climate change on rice production in Asia andevaluating options for adaptation. Agricultural Systems,1997, 54(3): 399-425.
Gao L Z, Jin Z Q, Huang Y, et al. Rice clock model: Acomputer model to simulate rice development. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 1992, 60(1-2): 1-16.
[116]
Yin X Y. A nonlinear model to quantify temperature effecton rice phenology and its application. Acta AgronomicaSinica, 1994, 20(6): 692-700.
[117]
Meng Y L, Cao W X, Zhou Z G. A Process-based Modelfor Simulation Phasic Development and Phenology inRice. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2003, 36(11):1362-1367.
[118]
Yan M C, Cao W X, Li C D, et al. Validation and evaluationof amechanistic model of phasic and phenologicaldevelopment of wheat. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2000,33(2): 43-50.
[119]
Yan M C, Cao W Y, Luo W. A mechanistic model of phasicand phenological development of wheat.I: Assumptionand description of the model. Chinese Journal of ApplliedEcology, 2000, 11(3): 355-359.
Robertson G W. Development of simplified agroclimaticprocedures for assessing temperature effects on crop development//Slatyer R O. Plant Response to Climatic Factors.Paris: UNESCO, Philippine Weather Bureau, 1973:327-343.
[123]
郑国清,高亮之. 玉米发育期动态模拟模型. 江苏农业学报, 2000, 16(1): 15-21.
[124]
Ahas R, Jaagus J, Aasa A. The phenological calendar ofEstonia and its correlation with mean air temperature. InternationalJournal of Biometeorology, 2000, 44(4):159-166.
[125]
Badeck F W, Bondeau A, Bottcher K, et al. Responses ofspring phenology to climate change. New Phytologist,2004, 162(2): 295-309.
[126]
McBratney A B, Mendonca Santos M L, Minasny B. Ondigital soil mapping. Geoderma, 2003, 117(1-2): 3-52.
[127]
Menzel A, Sparks T H, Estrella N, et al. European phenologicalresponse to climate change matches the warmingpattern. Global Change Biology, 2006, 12(10):1969-1976.
[128]
Orchard T J. Calculating constant temperature equivalents.Agricultural Meteorology, 1975, 15(3): 405-418.
[129]
Tyldesley J B. A method of evaluating the effect of temperatureon an organism when the response is nonlinear.Agricultural Meteorology, 1978, 19(2): 137-153.
[130]
Johnson I R, Thomley J H M. Temperature dependence ofplant and crop processes. Annals of Botany, 1985, 55(1):1-24.
[131]
Angus J F, Mackenzie D H, Morton R, et al. Phasic developmentin field crops. II: Thermal and photoperiodic responsesof spring wheat. Field Crops Research, 1981, 4(3): 269-283.
[132]
Horie T, Nakagawa H. Modelling and prediction of devel-opment process in rice. I: Structure and method of parameterestimation of a model for simulating developmentprocess toward heading. Japan Journal of Crop Science,1990, 59(4): 687-695.
[133]
Brounwer R, Wit C T. A simulation model of plantgrowth with special attention to root growth and its consequences//Whittington N W J. Root growth. London: Butterworths,1969: 222-224.
[134]
Duncan W G, Baker D N. Simulation of growth and yieldin cotton: II. A computer analysis of the nutritional theory.Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conference, Memphis,TN: National Cotton Council, 1971: 45-61.
[135]
de Wit C T, Goudriaan J, Van Laar H H, et al. Simulationof Assimilation, Respiration and Transpiration of Crops.Wageningen, Netherlands: Pudoc., 1978: 140.
[136]
McMaster G S, Morgan J S, Wihelm W W. Simulatingwinter wheat spikes development and growth. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 1992, 60(3): 193-220.
[137]
Penning de Vries F W T,Van Laar H H. Simulation ofGrowth Processes and the Model BACROS//Penning deVries F W T, Van Laar H H. Simulation of Plant Growthand Crop Production. Wageningen, Netherlands: Pudoc.,1982: 114-135.
[138]
Ritchie J T, Otter S. Description and performance of CERES-Wheat: A user oriented wheat yield model. USDAARS:ARS38, 1985: 159-175..
[139]
曹永华. 美国CERES 作物模拟模型及其应用. 世界农业, 1991(9): 52-55.
[140]
Bouman B A M, Kropff M J, Tuong T P. ORYZA2000:Modeling lowland rice. Los Banos: IRRI and WageningenUniversity, 2001: 235.
Yan M C, Cao W X, Li C D, et al. Validation and evaluationof amechanistic model of phasic and phenologicaldevelopment of wheat. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2000,33(2): 43-50.
[148]
Yan M C, Cao W Y, Luo W. A mechanistic model of phasicand phenological development of wheat.I: Assumptionand description of the model. Chinese Journal of ApplliedEcology, 2000, 11(3): 355-359.
