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无测站流域水文预测(PUB)的研究方法

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.11.014, PP. 1333-1339

Keywords: PUB,方法,流域,水文预测,资料

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Abstract:

根据国内外研究成果,结合自身的科研体会,借用“巧妇面临无米之炊”时可能用到的“借、替和种米”的应对逻辑,将无测站流域水文预测(PredictionsinUngaugedBasins,PUB)的研究方法归纳为移植法、替代法和生成法。将移植法归类为两种,一是当研究地区没有测站资料(简称无资料)而周边某个地区有测站资料(简称有资料)时,如果有资料区的自然地理环境与研究地区相似,直接移用该有资料地区的资料到无资料区,即直接移植法;二是倘若周边不只一个区域有资料,那么就借用所有这些点的信息,采用插值法得到无资料区的资料,即间接移植法。定义替代法为如果本研究区域或者相似区域没有资料,但有可能“求出”资料的辅助信息,则挖掘这些信息的方法。将替代法分为两类,一是根据本研究区域其他信息,通过模型模拟、同化、融合、从本学科和多学科领域挖掘信息等技术,得到本研究区所需资料。二是根据其它研究区域其他信息得到本研究区所需资料,包括就地外延和对比流域法。定义生成法为通过获取第一手资料开展水文预测的方法,包括野外实验和室内实验。通过梳理PUB的这些研究途径,探索了PUB方法发展的可能突破口,旨为推动PUB的研究提供思路。

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