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IPCC-AR4全球气候模式在华东区域气候变化的预估能力评价与不确定性分析

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.07.007, PP. 818-826

Keywords: 不确定性,华东区域,气候模式,情景预估

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Abstract:

本文分析了IPCC第四次评估报告中的全球气候模式在华东区域的气候预估能力与不确定性。以均方根误差作为衡量预估能力的标准,比较了IPCC-AR4中21个气候模式在中等排放情景下的预估能力,结果表明气候模式对华东区域气候变化的模拟能力差异较大,模式NCAR-CCSM3和MRI_CGCM2_3.2在年平均气温和年降水2个要素的均方根误差均较小,说明它们对华东区域的气候预估能力比其他模式强。在中等排放情景下,气候模式能够模拟出接近观测实况的年平均气温与降水的空间分布特征,但是由于空间分辨率较低,模式不能模拟出局部细致的结构;多模式集合平均对华东区域气温预估存在明显系统偏差,比观测实况偏低1.6℃以上,偏低幅度超过了不确定性(一倍的模式间标准偏差)能涵盖的范围;华东区域年降水模式间标准偏差占模式集合平均百分比为26.7%,表明直接用AR4多模式集合平均的结果难以准确反映华东区域该要素的未来变化。

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