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中国产业能源消费碳排放结构及其减排敏感性分析

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.005, PP. 670-676

Keywords: 产业结构,非竞争型投入产出表,碳排放

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Abstract:

本文在非竞争型投入产出分析框架下,建立了区域碳排放的结构分析模型及其敏感性分析方法,并利用中国2007年非竞争型投入产出表,研究了中国产业能源消费碳排放根源以及由贸易产生的碳排放转移问题,并进一步对中国经济结构调整的排放敏感性进行了研究。研究结果标明,出口是中国碳排放总量迅速增加的主要推动力之一,2007年中国对外贸易导致的净出口碳占中国碳排放总量的29.1%。而国内建筑业的投资,机械交通电子设备的出口与投资,国内对食品、电力热力以及服务业的消费,化工金属等高耗能产品的出口等经济活动是我国碳排放的主要根源,也是排放敏感性较高的经济活动。因此,在调整产业结构,促进产业升级,优化出口结构,加快产能转移,抑制基础原材料工业产品的出口规模并逐步实施进口替代,提高出口层次和出口产品附加值的同时,重视提倡全民减排,积极建立节约型社会,特别是减少建筑业的浪费和服务业能耗,将是中国节能减排工作的重点任务。

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