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中国区域经济波动与经济增长关系

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.10.011, PP. 1233-1238

Keywords: 金融深化,经济波动,经济增长,面板数据模型,市场化程度,中国

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Abstract:

区域经济波动与经济增长的关系研究对中国经济的持续稳定增长具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于1978-2007年中国省级区域横截面和面板2种数据格式，运用相应的计量模型对我国区域经济波动与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究，发现①我国区域经济波动对经济增长的负作用在时间—空间2个维度上均显著，但随改革开放的推进，经济波动对经济增长的负作用呈逐渐减小趋势；②金融深化和市场化程度的加深有利于减小经济波动对增长的负作用，各地区金融深化和市场化程度的差异造成了波动—增长关系的地区异质性，这种异质性主要表现在不同地区经济波动对经济增长负面影响的强度上；③控制经济波动的内生性后，经济波动对经济增长的负作用有被放大的倾向，考虑经济波动内生性时，中国经济波动程度提高1%，会导致经济增长率降低0.125%。

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