Bannayan M, Crout N M J, Hoogenboom G. 2003. Application of the CERES-Wheat model for within-season prediction of winter wheat yield in the United Kingdom. Agronomy Journal, 95(1): 114-125.
[2]
Challinor A J, Wheeler T R, Hemming D, et al. 2009. Ensemble yield simulations: Crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change. Climate Research, 38(2): 117-127.
[3]
Chavas D R, Izaurralde R C, Thomson A M, et al. 2009.Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149(6-7): 1118-1128.
[4]
Collins M. 2007. Ensembles and probabilities: A new era in the prediction of climate change. Philosophical Transac-tions of the Royal Society A, 365: 1957-1970.
[5]
Hansen J W, Challinor A J, Ines A, et al. 2006.Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Climate Research, 33(1): 27-41.
[6]
Huang W, Deng X Z, He S J, et al. 2010. An econometric analysis on the impacts of climatic change on grain production at counties of China. Progress in Geography, 29(6): 677-683. [黄维, 邓祥征, 何书金, 等. 2010. 中国气候变 化对县域粮食产量影响的计量经济分析. 地理科学进 展, 29(6): 677-683.]
[7]
IPCC. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
[8]
Jones J W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H, et al. 2003. The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18(3): 235-265.
[9]
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, et al. 2002. NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(11): 1631-1643.
[10]
Lewis J M. 2005. Roots of ensemble forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 133(7): 1865-1885.
[11]
Li H B, Shefffield J, Wood E F. 2010. Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: D10101.
[12]
Lobell D B, Burke M B, Tebaldi C, et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319: 607-610.
[13]
Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H, et al. 2009. Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 131(3-4): 281-291.
[14]
Matthias S, Richard B, Daniel M, et al. 2010. Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact. Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 18(3): 229-254.
[15]
Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463: 747-756.
[16]
Parry M L, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, et al. 2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 53-67.
[17]
Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467: 43-51.
[18]
Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood E F. 2006. Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. Journal of Climate, 19 (13): 3088-3111.
[19]
Semenov M A, Stratonovitch P. 2010. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research, 41(1): 1-14.
[20]
Tao F, Zhang Z, Liu J, et al. 2009. Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149(8): 1266-1278.
[21]
Tebaldi C, Lobell D B. 2008. Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(8): L08705.
[22]
Tian Z, Zhong H, Shi R, et al. 2012. Estimating potential yield of wheat production in China based on cross-scale data- model fusion. Frontiers of Earth Science, 6(4): 364-372.
[23]
van Vuuren D P, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, et al. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109(1): 5-31.
[24]
Wang J X, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, et al. 2009. The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40(3): 323-337.
[25]
Xiong W, Xu Y L, Lin E D. 2005. The simulation of yield variability of winter wheat and its corresponding adaptation options under climate change. Chinese Agricultural Science Bullentin, 21(5): 380-385. [熊伟, 许吟隆, 林而达. 2005. 气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及其应对措施 模拟. 中国农学通报, 21(5): 380-385.]
[26]
Xiong W, Conway D, Holman I, et al. 2008. Evaluation of CERES-Wheat simulation of wheat production in China. Agronomy Journal, 100(6): 1720-1728.
[27]
Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E D, et al. 2009. Futrue cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Chang, 19(1): 34-44.
[28]
Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E D, Conway D, et al. 2010. Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 135(1): 58-69.
[29]
Xiong W, Lin E D, Jiang J H, et al. 2010. An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China's future grain production. Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(4): 397-406. [熊 伟, 林而达, 蒋金荷, 等. 2010. 中国粮食生产的综合影 响因素分析. 地理学报, 65(4): 397-406.]
[30]
Yao F M, Qin P C, Zhang J H, et al. 2011. Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(8): 729-737. [姚凤梅,秦鹏 程, 张佳华, 等. 2011. 基于模型模拟气候变化对农业影响评估的不确定性及处理方法. 科学通报,56(8): 729-737.]
[31]
Ye L, Xiong W, Li Z, et al. 2012. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33(2): 363-374.
[32]
Zhang Y, Wang S L, Wang F T. 2000. Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 11(3): 264-270. [张宇, 王石立, 王馥棠. 2000. 气候变化对我国 小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究. 应用气象学报, 11(3): 264-270.]
[33]
Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4): 485-498.
[34]
Taylor K E. 2001. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D7): 7183-7192.
