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气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.04.011, PP. 587-594

Keywords: 归因分析,年径流,气候变化,松花江流域,西苕溪流域,子牙河流域

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Abstract:

气候变化对流域径流的影响显著,但不同流域径流对各气候因子敏感性不同,具有明显的空间分异性。本文以位于半湿润、湿润地区的松花江、子牙河以及西苕溪流域为例,基于Budyko水热平衡经验模型,采用归因分析方法分离了气象要素趋势性变化对年径流和潜在蒸发变化率的贡献与差异性。结果表明1960-2008年,在上述3个流域中,降水趋势性变化对年径流变化的贡献比潜在蒸发大。松花江和子牙河流域各气象要素趋势性变化对潜在蒸发变化率的贡献排序为温度>风速>水汽压>日照时数,而西苕溪流域为温度>日照时数>风速>水汽压。在气候要素共同作用下,松花江和子牙河流域平均年径流分别以0.48和1.51mma-2的速率减少,而西苕溪流域年径流则以1.42mma-2的速率增加。所得结果加深了气候变化对径流影响机制和程度的认识,可作为流域水资源适应性管理的科学依据。

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