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全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2005.01.007, PP. 61-69

Keywords: 脆弱性评价,气候变化,生态系统

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Abstract:

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2-10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。

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