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-  2003 

SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究

DOI: 10.11821/yj2003050003

Keywords: SARS,双变量ARIMA模型,心理承受能力,入境旅游人数

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Abstract:

摘要: 今年爆发的SARS对中国旅游业冲击很大。本文利用双变量ARIMA模型,结合突发事件后人的心理发展变化曲线研究本次突发事件对入境旅游人数的影响。根据同类事件旅游心理恢复期的研究,结合中国实际情况,笔者讨论了恢复期分别为12、18、24个月时,SARS对入境旅游人数的影响。当恢复期为12个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1796%,入境旅游人数共减少238493万人次;当恢复期为18个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1707%,入境旅游人数共减少311703万人次;当恢复期为24个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1655%,入境旅游人数共减少385233万人次。

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