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-  2012 

中原腹地气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响——以商丘地区为例

DOI: 10.11821/yj2012010002

Keywords: 气候变化,商丘,冬小麦,产量

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Abstract:

摘要: 为探明气候变化对商丘地区冬小麦产量的影响,根据1991~2010商丘市气候资料和小麦产量资料,利用数学统计与Thornthwaite Memoriae模型,结合未来气候预测结果定量分析了气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明,冬小麦产量整体上呈波动上升趋势;主成分分析表明,气温、降水量、蒸发量与极端温度为影响冬小麦产量的主要气候因子,蒸发量过大及极端低温对冬小麦生产不利。商丘地区"暖湿型"气候有利于冬小麦生产力的提高,"冷干型"气候对冬小麦生产最为不利;未来几十年内气候可能将向"暖湿型"变化,对商丘地区粮食作物产量的提升较为有利

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