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-  2011 

东北地区近40年干燥指数变化趋势及其气候敏感性

DOI: 10.11821/yj2011100003

Keywords: 干燥指数,气候变化,敏感系数,东北地区

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Abstract:

摘要: 基于东北地区91个站点1971~2008的常规气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall方法分析了区内近40年干燥指数的变化趋势,并基于Penman-Monteith公式计算了干燥指数对各气象要素的敏感性系数,分析了气候变化影响下,干燥指数气候敏感系数的变化规律。研究表明:(1)东北地区近40年来干燥指数以0.06/10a的趋势增加,2000年以来为近40年最干燥的时期;(2)东北地区干燥指数对实际水汽压的敏感性仅次于降水,而对平均风速的敏感系数最小;(3)干燥指数对气温变化的敏感性由北向南增加,对水汽压变化的响应以东部地区最为强烈,对太阳辐射变化的敏感响应区域为长白山山麓一带,而对风速变化响应较为敏感的区域则为东北大平原的西部和大兴安岭的南段;(4)近40年来东北地区干燥指数对于气温、风速以及太阳辐射敏感程度呈增加趋势,而对水汽压的敏感程度明显减弱。气温升高和降水减少是东北地区干燥程度加深的主要原因,但水汽压的增加、太阳辐射的减少和风速的减少缓解了这一趋势

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