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-  2014 

基于PGIS的社区洪涝灾害概率风险评估——以福建省泰宁县城区为例

DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201401004

Keywords: 参与式地理信息系统,社区,洪涝灾害,风险评估,福建泰宁

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Abstract:

摘要: 以福建泰宁县城区为例,基于PGIS 和概率(情景)风险分析方法,开展社区尺度的洪涝灾害风险研究。利用1949-2011年13 次历史洪灾资料,计算了洪水的强度—超越概率,得出大于洪峰流量2929.18 m3/s 和洪峰水位281.50 m的年超越概率为1.6%。在此情景下,县城淹没面积达1.3 km2(占总面积31.0%),最大淹没深度超过3.5 m,最长淹没时间超过10小时,共有1846 幢建筑物(占全部建筑的42.2%)受影响。分别针对受灾区域房屋建筑、住宅室内财产和商户室内财产,建立灾损方程,评估损失价值,并绘制灾损地图。结果表明,洪涝灾害对社区造成的影响显著,有必要制定应急预案,建立早期预警等进行防灾降险

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