全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
-  2009 

中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力 构成的变动规律

DOI: 10.11821/yj2009010015

Keywords: 生态足迹构成指数,生物承载力构成指数,熵值法,ARIMA,偏最小二乘回归

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

摘要: 基于熵值法提出能够衡量生态足迹和生物承载力构成多样性的生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念,计算并构建了中国人均生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数较为理想的ARIMA预测模型分别为ARIMA(2,1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,1)。结果表明,2006~2010年,中国人均生态足迹构成指数将在波动中有所下降,生物承载力构成指数持续下降,未来4年可持续发展潜力在波动中也将有所降低。中国人均生态足迹构成指数与10个驱动因素的偏最小二乘回归分析发现,正相关因素依次为城镇人口、第一产业产值、总人口、进出口贸易总额、第三产业产值,负相关因素依次为政府消费、农业人口、居民消费、人均GDP、第二产业产值。

References

[1]  Rees W E. Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity: What urban economics leaves out. Environment and Urbanization, 1992, 4:121~130.
[2]  Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, Erb K H. Ecological footprint time series of Austria, Philippines, and South Korea for 1961-1999: Comparing the conventional approach to an "actual land area" approach. Land Use Policy, 2004, 21(3):261~269.
[3]  Wackernagel M, Onisto L, Bello Petal. National nature capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept. Ecological Economics, 1999, 29(3):375~390.
[4]  郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强. 城市生态足迹计算与分析——以广州为例. 地理研究,2003,22(5):654~662.
[5]  Haberl H, Erb K H, Krausmann F. How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time: The case of Austria 1926-1995. Ecological Economics, 2001, 38(1):25~45.
[6]  S nchez-Ch liz J, Duarte R, Mainar A. Environmental impact of household activity in Spain. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62(2):308~318.
[7]  Holden E, H yer K G. The ecological footprints of fuels. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2005, 10(5):395~403.
[8]  Federici M, Ulgiati S, Verdesca D, et al. Efficiency and sustainability indicators for passenger and commodities transportation systems: The case of Siena, Italy. Ecological Indicators, 2003, 3(3):155~169.
[9]  章锦河,张捷. 旅游生态足迹及黄山市实证分析. 地理学报,2004,59(5):763~771.
[10]  Thomassen M A, Boer I J, et al. Evaluation of indicators to assess the environmental impact of dairy production systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2005, 111(1-4):185~199.
[11]  Hornborg A. Footprints in the cotton fields: The industrial revolution as time space appropriation and environmental load displacement. Ecological Economics, 2006, 59(1):74~81.
[12]  Jenerette G D, Wu W L, Goldsmith S, et al. Contrasting water footprints of cities in China and the United States. Ecological Economics, 2006, 57(3):346~358.
[13]  龙爱华,张志强,徐中民,等.甘肃省水资源足迹与消费模式分析. 水科学进展,2005,16(3):418~425.
[14]  van der Werf H M G, Tzilivakis J, Lewis K, et al. Environmental impacts of farm scenarios according to five assessment methods. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2007, 118(1-4):327~338.
[15]  徐中民,程国栋,邱国玉. 可持续性评价的ImPACTS等式. 地理学报,2005,60(2):198~208.
[16]  Jorgenson A K, Burns T J. The political-economic causes of change in the ecological footprints of nations, 1991–2001: A quantitative investigation. Social Science Research, 2007, 36 (2):834~853.
[17]  Yue D X, Xu X F, Li Z Z, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological footprint and biological capacity of Gansu, China 1991–2015: Down from the environmental cliff. Ecological Economics, 2006, 58(2):393~406.
[18]  蔺海明,颉鹏. 甘肃省河西绿洲农业区生态足迹动态研究. 应用生态学报,2004,15(5):827~832.
[19]  Cadenas E, Rivera W. Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, México. Renewable Energy, 2007, 32(12):2116~2128.
[20]  You L Z, Wood S. An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production. Agricultural Systems, 2006, 90(1-3):329~347.
[21]  Bushuyev S D, Sochnev S V. Entropy measurement as a project control tool. International Journal of Project Management, 1999, 17(6):343~350.
[22]  王惠文,吴载斌,孟洁. 偏最小二乘回归的线性和非线性方法. 北京:国防工业出版社,2006.
[23]  Cho M A, Skidmore A, Corsi F, et al. Estimation of green grass/herb biomass from airborne hyper spectral imagery using spectral indices and partial least squares regression. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2007, 9(4):414~424.
[24]  Leardi R. Application of genetic algorithm-PLS for feature selection in spectral data sets. Journal of Chemometrics, 2000, 14:643~655.
[25]  吴海军. ARIMA模型在北京市全社会固定资产投资预测中的应用. 经济研究导刊,2007,9(2):131~133.
[26]  Wackernagel M, Moran D, White S, et al. Ecological footprint accounts for advancing sustainability: Measuring human demands on nature. In Lawn P (eds.): sustainable development indicators in ecological economics. USA: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.2006, 247~267.
[27]  Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, Schulz N B, et al. Calculating national and global ecological footprint time series: resolving conceptual challenges. Land Use Policy, 2004, 21(3):271~278.
[28]  Wackernagel M, Rees W E. Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 1996.
[29]  Ferng J J. Using composition of land multiplier to estimate ecological footprints associated with production activity. Ecological Economics, 2001, 37(2):159~172.
[30]  熊德国,鲜学福,姜永东. 生态足迹理论在区域可持续发展评价中的应用及改进. 地理科学进展,2003,22(6):618~626.
[31]  徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等. 中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析. 应用生态学报,2003,14(2):280~285.
[32]  吴隆杰. 基于生态足迹指数的中国可持续发展动态评估. 中国农业大学学报,2005, 10(6): 94~99.
[33]  Zhao S, Li Z Z, Li W L. A modified method of ecological footprint calculation and its application. Ecological Modelling, 2005, 185 (1):65~75.
[34]  Nguyen H X, Yamamoto R. Modification of ecological footprint evaluation method to include non-renewable resource consumption using thermodynamic approach. Resources Conservation and Recycling, 2007, 51(4):870~884.
[35]  Hubacek K, Giljum S. Applying physical input-output analysis to estimate land appropriation (Ecological Footprints) of international trade activities. Ecological Economics, 2003, 44(1):137~151.
[36]  Stglehner G. Ecological footprint:A tool for assessing sustainable energy supplies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2003, 11:267~277.
[37]  Wiedmann T, Lenzen M. On the conversion between local and global hectares in Ecological Footprint analysis. Ecological Economics, 2007, 60(4):673~677.
[38]  White T. Diet and the distribution of environmental impact. Ecological Economics, 2000, 34(1):145~153.
[39]  韩晓卓,张彦宇,李自珍. 生态足迹时间序列趋势外推分析的一种新方法及其应用. 草业学报,2006,15(5):129~134.
[40]  Chen Chengzhong, Lin Zhenshan. Multiple timescale analysis and factor analysis of energy ecological footprint growth in China 1953-2006. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(5):1666~1678.
[41]  陈成忠,林振山.基于EMD方法的中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力分析及情景预测. 生态学报,2007,27(12), 5291~5299.
[42]  常斌,熊利亚,侯西勇,等. 基于空间的生态足迹与生态承载力预测模型——以甘肃省河西走廊地区为例. 地理研究,2007,26(5):940~948.
[43]  刘建兴,顾晓薇,李广军,等. 中国经济发展与生态足迹的关系研究. 资源科学,2005,27(5):33~39.
[44]  蒋依依,王仰麟,彭建,等. 基于旅游生态足迹模型的旅游区可持续发展度量——以云南省丽江纳西族自治县为例. 地理研究,2006,25(6):1134~1142.
[45]  张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型. 生态经济,2000,(10):8~10.
[46]  Li H, Zhang P D, He C Y, et al. Evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in China. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62(1):136~148.
[47]  Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3-4):231~259.
[48]  吴开亚,王玲杰. 生态足迹及其影响因子的偏最小二乘回归模型与应用. 资源科学,2006,28(6):182~188.
[49]  Barros A S, Pinto R, Delgadillo I, et al. Segmented principal component transform partial l east squares regression. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 2007, 89(2):59~68.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133