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利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报

DOI: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247, PP. 314-320

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Abstract:

海浪对掠海飞行有着重要影响,以T639预报风场驱动WW3(WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ)海浪模式,对2013年3月发生在中国海的一次冷空气海浪场进行数值模拟.结合飞行高度探测的标准差、海浪浪高的标准差,进一步实现了击水概率的数值预报,为低空飞行器的航迹规划提供科学依据.主要计算了5m高度、10m高度、15m高度的击水概率,并对比不同飞行高度击水概率的差异.结果表明,以T639预报风场驱动WW3海浪模式,可以较好地预报中国海海浪场、击水概率场.在冷空气影响下,中国海的击水概率出现明显增幅.飞行高度低于10m时,海浪会对掠海飞行器的安全造成很大威胁.

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