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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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基于GIS可达性模型的公交出行预测
, PP. 137-141
Keywords: 智能运输系统,公交需求预测,可达性模型,公交站点,GIS
Abstract:
以基于距离衰减理论的可达性模型为基础,运用GIS栅格数据分析方法,探讨了公交出行预测的新方法。主要过程包括社会经济活动的空间分解、可达性模型参数确定及其度量。以武汉市作为实例进行了公交出行需求的分布预测研究,并基于实际调查对结果进行了验证。结果表明,基于GIS的可达性模型对公交出行发生预测具有宏观意义,但在微观层面存在一定的变化。可达性模型不能反映公交站点的换乘情况,而实地观测数据也不能将换乘量剥离,导致一些站点的预测精度偏低。更为重要的是,城市社会经济活动的密度分布也会带来公交出行规律的变化,需要针对不同的区域分别校核模型参数。
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