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基于机动车政策的城市交通可持续发展建模研究

Keywords: 交通工程,可持续交通,系统动力学,城市交通,政策

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Abstract:

基于系统动力学方法,融合环境因素,构建以机动车发展政策为调控因子的城市交通可持续发展系统动力学模型,并进行了实证研究.研究结果表明政策干预对机动车保有量、GDP、总人口及NO2污染指数起有重要作用.对机动车的严格限制政策可有效减缓交通拥堵水平,降低车辆出行百分比,减小车辆出行量,敦促公众出行放弃私家车而选择公共交通,是当前改善公共交通服务质量较为适宜的方法.为减少城市交通发展对环境的负面影响,不仅要采取车辆保有量限制政策,还应采取重点研发及推广交通节能减排新技术等有效措施降低单车能耗与排污量.

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