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考虑降雨影响的城市交通流车速多层线性模型研究

, PP. 119-125

Keywords: 交通工程,交通流,多层线性模型,降雨,车速,多层数据

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Abstract:

应用多层线性模型研究了降雨强度对城市道路交通流平均行驶车速的影响。研究资料包括道路特征数据(25个路段)、广州市城市道路交通流平均行驶车速数据(有效车速样本量超过160万)和降雨量数据(样本量93462)。采集时间从2011年6月至2012年4月一共330d。基于以上大规模数据,应用多层线性模型(HLM),建立了一个降雨条件下道路交通流车速的短时动态预测模型。结果表明交通流信息存在嵌套、分层的数据结构,相较于传统交通流研究方法,多层线性模型对交通流影响因素的研究将更为合理;降雨对车速的影响具有普遍的空间变异性,这是因为每个路段具有不同的物理特征;交通流的影响因素之间存在着显著的跨层交互效应,这与传统理论对交通流的认识不同;本文提出的降雨条件下交通流车速的短时动态预测模型具有路段适用性广的突出优点,这与大多数传统交通流模型适用范围较为狭窄的特点较为不同。

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