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CO2排放、气候变化及其对混凝土结构开始腐蚀时间和时变可靠度评估的影响

Keywords: 桥梁工程,气候变化,混凝土,碳化,腐蚀,结构可靠度

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Abstract:

基于改进的碳化深度预测模型,结合IPCC预测数据,研究了气候变化(CO2浓度)的规律及其对混凝土结构的碳化损伤影响。由于概率预测模型能够考虑环境、结构尺寸、保护层厚度和劣化机制的不确定性和变异性,提出了时变可靠度模型来计算混凝土结构在多种CO2排放策略作用下将来100年内的开始腐蚀概率。研究表明在最高CO2排放策略下的开始腐蚀概率比其在最好CO2排放策略下高4.6倍;大多数混凝土结构在服役期存在碳化腐蚀损伤现象,将来需要大量的维修和维护工作;如果最高CO2排放策略在将来发生,混凝土保护层设计厚度需要提高3~15mm以降低混凝土结构的开始腐蚀概率和减少腐蚀损伤。

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