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隧道围岩变形动态预测的灰色自适应模型及其参数智能辨识

Keywords: 隧道工程,围岩变形,灰色自适应模型,粒子群优化算法,动态预测

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Abstract:

隧道围岩变形具有动态性、对时间和空间的敏感性及高度的非线性等特征。基于这些特性,探讨了隧道围岩变形动态预测灰色自适应GM(1,1)模型的建模思路及步骤。为确保参数为全局最优,提高模型的预测精度,提出采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)对模型参数进行智能辨识,并给出了参数智能辨识的方法和步骤。根据所建立的模型,编制了相应的计算程序。在此基础上,以贵州厦蓉高速公路某施工标段为工程实例,建立了隧道拱顶沉降及收敛位移预测分析的灰色自适应模型。算例分析表明,在数据较少的情况下,基于PSO参数智能辨识的灰色自适应模型的递推和跟踪能力较强,预测结果与实际监控数据吻合程度较高,是隧道围岩变形动态预测较为有效的方法,可在实际工程中推广应用。

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