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突发事件下选择应急方案的风险决策方法

, PP. 1859-1863

Keywords: 应急方案选择,风险决策,行为因素,两两比较,交叉判断

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Abstract:

针对突发事件应急方案选择问题,提出一种考虑决策者行为因素的混合多属性风险决策方法.首先,分析归纳突发事件应急方案选择问题决策信息结构的基本特征;然后,引入前景理论中的价值函数,通过将备选方案两两比较和基元情景交叉判断的方式计算方案各属性的前景价值,并运用二元语义模型计算各方案的综合价值,据此确定方案排序;最后,通过算例研究表明了所提出方法的有效性和可行性.

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