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基于感知效用模型的“均值偏向”形成机理

DOI: 10.13195/j.kzyjc.2014.0523, PP. 1171-1180

Keywords: 库存决策行为,期望效用,感知效用,均值偏向,报童模型

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Abstract:

在经典报童模型的基础上引入概率选择理论,发现决策者对需求发生的感知概率不符合贝叶斯公理,而为截尾正态分布.鉴于此,提出一种感知效用下的最优库存策略,并采用行为实验的方法测算出不同产品的决策噪音;根据行为实验的决策数据,仿真模拟了不同成本产品中决策者的订购行为.结果显示:感知效用模型可以解释库存决策中的“均值偏向”现象;当产品生产成本??逐渐接近(??+??)/2时,“均值偏向”现象将逐渐消失;随着??的增大,单位均值偏向度将不断减小.由此可见,“均值偏向”现象不是一种普遍现象,仅存在于部分产品的订购行为中.

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