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灰色Verhulst模型背景值优化及其应用

DOI: 10.13195/j.kzyjc.2014.1004, PP. 1835-1840

Keywords: 灰色Verhulst,模型,Logistic,函数,背景值,最小二乘

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Abstract:

鉴于背景值是影响灰色建模精度的重要因素之一,提出一种灰色Verhulst模型中背景值的优化方法.基于灰色Verhulst模型时间响应式的Logistic函数形式和背景值的几何意义,利用积分中值定理研究背景值与发展系数之间的数量关系;采用最小二乘法对新参数进行估计,还原原始参数估计值,使得优化的背景值模型同时具备无偏性和最小误差性.案例分析表明,背景值优化的模型改善了模拟精度,验证了模型的有效性和可行性.

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