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新型灰色Verhulst预测模型的参数特性

DOI: 10.13195/j.kzyjc.2014.1246, PP. 2093-2096

Keywords: 灰色预测模型,灰色Verhulst,模型,累加生成,数乘变换

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Abstract:

在灰色Verhulst模型建模机理的基础上,考虑相关因素对系统预测精度的影响,构建一种新型灰色Verhulst模型.分析该模型参数在系统特征序列与相关因素序列经数乘变换前后的量化关系,并分析数乘变换对该新模型建模精度的影响程度.研究结果表明,新型灰色Verhulst模型的建模精度与系统相关因素序列的数乘变换有关,而与系统特征序列的数乘变换无关.研究结论认为,利用数乘变换可降低该模型的建模复杂性.

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