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基于CA模型的防城港海岸线预测模拟

DOI: 10.6046/gtzyyg.2013.02.25, PP. 149-155

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Abstract:

将多时相卫星遥感图像叠加技术与GIS空间分析方法相结合,对研究防城港海岸线演变特征及预测海岸线变化趋势具有重要的现实意义。首先,对防城港2000年11月及2010年10月获取的2个时相TM图像进行预处理、海岸线特征信息提取及空间分析;然后,根据相关控制因素及相应的邻居规则建立元胞自动机(cellularautomata,CA)模型,利用蒙特·卡罗方法(MonteCarlomethod)结合控制因素进行判断,最终确定元胞的转化状态。通过2010年实际海岸线与预测海岸线的叠置分析得知,2010年预测海岸线的数量精度为83.65%,空间位置精度为93.45%,都在误差允许范围内,证明利用蒙特·卡罗CA模型预测海岸线的方法是可行的。最后,结合CA模型算法及Matlab仿真技术实现了对2020年防城港海岸线的预测。

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