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财贸经济  2014 

居民消费与最优政府支出:理论与动态估计

, PP. 22-36

Keywords: 居民消费,最优政府支出,适应性预期,挤出效应,挤入效应

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Abstract:

本文运用萨缪尔森的乘数—加速数相互作用模型研究了政府支出对居民消费的影响。理论证明:在无限期假设下,处于稳态经济中的居民消费与政府支出两者的关系取决于居民边际消费倾向和政府边际支出倾向。经检验表明,这两者呈现“倒U型”关系,表现为政府支出对居民消费先产生挤入效应,后产生挤出效应,且在2005年达到挤入效应的最大值。分项检验中,一般公共事务性支出和民生性政府支出分别对居民消费产生挤出效应和挤入效应,经济事务性支出对居民消费呈现为先挤入后挤出的“倒U型”效应。据此本文提出几点财政政策建议。

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