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财贸经济  2014 

增值税与政府规模扩张的实证分析

, PP. 23-30

Keywords: 增值税,政府规模,税率,扩张

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Abstract:

增值税代表着近半个多世纪以来税收政策和税收征管最突出的发展成果。作为我国税制体系中地位最重要、收入贡献最大的税种,增值税改革从未停止。本文试图从政府规模扩张的视角,以欧盟和中国为代表分别验证在税率提高和税率不变两种情况下增值税与政府规模之间的关联关系,实证结果表明增值税是导致政府规模扩张的重要因素之一。中国在推进增值税改革过程中,不能只欣赏其收入效应并期待它的经济转型效果,还需防范它对政府规模扩张的助推作用。本文认为,后续改革还取决于经济利益与政治利益之间的利弊权衡,取决于政府、企业、民众三方之间的利益博弈。

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