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地理科学  2014 

区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析——以阿克苏河流域为例

, PP. 1480-1487

Keywords: 干旱,Copula,重现期,干旱风险,阿克苏河流域

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Abstract:

根据阿克苏河流域及其周边区域9个站点1960~2010年日降水资料,以降水距平百分率(Pa)指数表征气象干旱状况,构建了3种ArchimedeanCopula函数,通过4种方法(RMSE、AIC、BIC、Bayes)的检验,选出GHCopula作为最合适多变量干旱特征联合分布函数,并开展了研究区干旱特征两变量联合分布及重现期研究.结果表明①3种ArchimedeanCopula函数中GHCopula函数对研究区域干旱联合重现期分布的拟合效果最优;②研究区整体上干旱风险较大,东部比西部干旱风险高,南部高于北部;③发生中等干旱和严重干旱时,阿拉尔和柯坪干旱风险增大,整体上"且"与"或"联合重现期的分布大体一致,发生长历时干旱时,干旱的严重程度也大,说明此区域的干旱特征对开展风险管理及应对很不利.

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