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地理科学  2012 

城市交通消散期事故高峰现象及成因

, PP. 649-657

Keywords: 城市交通事故,交通消散期,时空间分析,地理信息系统,惠州

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Abstract:

学界对于交通事故高峰出现在交通高峰期还是之后的消散期存在争论,以惠州市中心城区为例,对城市交通事故进行研究,判别交通消散期事故高峰现象的存在性。以交通事故空间点数据为研究对象,使用核心密度估算法,分析交通事故的结构性特征和时空分布特征,并针对三个交通消散期研究其事故的具体特征及其成因。研究表明惠州市中心城区交通消散期存在事故高峰现象,主要发生在上午和下午;机动车在交通事故中占主导地位;临近商业设施的交通消散期事故高峰现象最为明显;支路事故在晚间交通消散期后段出现了事故高峰;从上午到晚上,交通事故黑点从交通相关设施转移到商业设施。交通消散期事故高峰现象的形成与居民集中在交通消散期的非通勤交通行为、特定路段的小时交通量高峰出现在交通消散期,以及交通消散期内松懈的交通管制和驾驶行为等有一定的关系。

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