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地理科学  2012 

基于多智能体系统的城市增长时空动态模拟——以江苏省连云港市为例

, PP. 1289-1296

Keywords: 城市增长,时空动态模拟,多智能体系统,联合决策,情景分析,连云港市

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Abstract:

城市化是土地利用/覆盖变化中最典型形式之一,探索城市增长的驱动机制并预测其未来变化,对于实现城市可持续发展十分重要。鉴于多智能体系统强大的模拟复杂空间系统的能力,基于联合“自上而下”和“自下而上”决策行为的视角,构建了一个城市增长时空动态模拟多智能体模型,在模型中,宏观Agent实施的“自上而下”的宏观土地利用规划行为和微观Agent自主发起的“自下而上”的微观土地利用空间诉求行为通过二维空间网格相互作用,并通过联合决策共同推动研究区域的城市化进程。以连云港市中心城区为例,考虑了基于目前趋势、经济发展优先和环境保护优先的3种目标情景,并进行了相应的城市增长情景模拟。模拟结果表明联合“自上而下”和“自下而上”决策行为的城市增长时空动态模拟多智能体模型能够充分发挥多智能体系统的潜力来了解城市化的驱动机制,为城市管理提供基于情景分析的决策支持。

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