全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
地理科学  2013 

近60a丹东极端温度和降水事件变化特征

, PP. 473-480

Keywords: 极端温度,极端降水,多重分形去趋势波动分析

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

利用丹东1951~2010年逐日温度和降水资料,以多重分形去趋势波动分析法定义极端事件的阈值,分析了该地区极端最高温度、极端最低温度和极端降水的变化特征。结果表明近60a丹东极端最低温度事件比极端最高温度和极端降水事件发生次数多,极端最高温度强度比极端最低温度大,平均超出了1.5℃,而极端降水平均强度为30.3mm,都在20世纪70年代最小,70年代是转折期;50年代的极端气候事件(温度和降水)最为严重,其次是90年代,70年代的严重度最轻;极端降水频次变化不明显,极端最高温度事件可以由夏季平均最高温度的变化预测,有不显著的增多趋势,而极端最低温度事件可以用冬季平均日较差温度的变化预测,在今后一段时间内有显著减少的趋势。

References

[1]  Dong Q, Chen X, Chen T. Characteristics and changes of extreme precipitation in the Yellow–Huaihe and Yangtze–Huaihe Rivers Basins, China
[2]  [J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(14): 3781-3795.
[3]  Rodrigo F. Changes in the probability of extreme daily precipitation observed from 1951 to 2002 in the Iberian Peninsula
[4]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(10):1512-1525.
[5]  Lupikasza E. Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Poland in the period 1951-2006
[6]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(7):991-1007.
[7]  Li Z, Zheng F L, Liu W Z, et al. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events on the Loess Plateau of China during 1961-2007
[8]  Gong D Y, Pan Y Z, Wang J A. Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955-2000
[9]  Zong Y, Chen X. The 1998 flood on the Yangtze, China
[10]  [N/ OL]. Huffington Post,
[11]  [2011-11-. http://www.huffingtonpost. com/2011/11/20/thailand-flooding-2011-death-toll_n_1103930. html#s486774.
[12]  纪晓梅. 95抗洪抢险检阅众志成城的丹东力量
[13]  [N/OL]. 鸭绿江 晚报,
[14]  [2009-09-. http://dd.nen.com.cn/76567825094803456/ 20090910/2174886.shtml.
[15]  [J]. Climatic Change, 1999, 42(1):203-218.
[16]  [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2003, 75(3):245-250.
[17]  [J]. Atmospheric Research, 2011, 101(1-2):143-154.
[18]  [J]. 地理科学, 2010, 30(3):469~474.
[19]  [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2004, 44(1-4):59-71.
[20]  Henderson K G, Muller R A. Extreme temperature days in the south-central United States
[21]  Sen Roy S, Balling Jr R C. Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India
[22]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2004, 24(4):457-466.
[23]  Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E. Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades
[24]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2009, 29(3):329-343.
[25]  [J]. Chinese Physics, 2004, 13(3):413-422.
[26]  Shukla J. Predictability in the midst of Chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting
[27]  [J]. Science, 1998, 282(5389): 728-731.
[28]  李建平, 丑纪范. 非定常外源强迫下大尺度大气方程组解的 性质
[29]  [J]. 科学通报, 1995, 40(13):1207~1209.
[30]  Kantelhardt J W, Zschiegner S A, Koscielny-Bunde E, et al. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series
[31]  杨萍, 侯威, 封国林. 基于去趋势波动分析方法确定极端 事件阈值
[32]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 31:2102-2114.
[33]  Kendall M G. Rank correlation measures
[34]  [M]. London: Charles Griffin,1975.
[35]  [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012, DOI:10.1007/s00704-012-0649-3.
[36]  Unka?evi? M, Vujovi? D, To?i? I. Trends in extreme summer temperatures at Belgrade
[37]  [J]. Quaternary International, 2010, 226(1-2):92-100.
[38]  [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2004, 77(1):25-37.
[39]  [J]. Natural Hazards, 2000, 22(2):165-184.
[40]  Thailand Flooding 2011: Death Toll Above 600 (PHOTOS)
[41]  López-Moreno J I, Beniston M. Daily precipitation intensity projected for the 21st century: seasonal changes over the Pyrenees
[42]  [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2009, 95(3):375-384.
[43]  Zhai P, Sun A, Ren F, et al. Changes of climate extremes in China
[44]  Gong D Y, Ho C H. Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia
[45]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2004, 24(2):131-144.
[46]  Sch?nwiese C D, Grieser J, Tr?mel S. Secular change of extreme monthly precipitation in Europe
[47]  姜德娟, 李志, 王昆. 1961~2008 年山东省极端降水事件 的变化趋势分析
[48]  [J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(9):1118~1124.
[49]  Xu X, Du Y G, Tang J P, et al. Variations of temperature and precipitation extremes in recent two decades over China
[50]  李志, 刘文兆, 郑粉莉. 1965~2005 年泾河流域极端温度事 件变化特征
[51]  杨素英, 孙凤华, 马建中. 增暖背景下中国东北地区极端降水 事件的演变特征
[52]  [J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(2):224~228.
[53]  Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano S M, López-Moreno J I, et al. Annual and seasonal mapping of peak intensity, magnitude and duration of extreme precipitation events across a climatic gradient, northeast Spain
[54]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2009, 29(12):1759-1779.
[55]  Prieto L, Herrera R G, Díaz J, et al. Minimum extreme temperatures over Peninsular Spain
[56]  [J]. Climate Research, 1997, 8(2): 151-162.
[57]  Griffiths G M, Chambers L E, Haylock M R, et al. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region
[58]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25(10):1301-1330.
[59]  Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J. Application of retrospective time integration scheme to the prediction of torrential rain
[60]  [J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2002, 316(1):87-114.
[61]  [J]. 物理学报, 2008, 57(8):5333~5342.
[62]  Kunkel K E. North American trends in extreme precipitation
[63]  [J]. Natural Hazards, 2003, 29(2):291-305.
[64]  Romero Y L, Bessembinder J, van de Giesen N C, et al. A relation between extreme daily precipitation and extreme short term precipitation
[65]  [J]. Climatic Change, 2011, 106:393-405.
[66]  Klein Tank AM G, Peterson T C, Quadir D A, et al. Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia
[67]  [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111: 1961-2005.
[68]  Beguería S, Angulo-Martínez M, Vicente-Serrano S M, et al. Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
[69]  Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend
[70]  [J]. Journal of the Econometric Society, 1945, 13:245-259.
[71]  Du H B, Wu Z F, Li M, et al. Characteristics of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperature over Northeast China, 1961-2009
[72]  姜逢清, 朱诚, 胡汝骥. 1960~1997 年新疆北部降水序列的 趋势探测
[73]  [J]. 地理科学, 2002, 22(6):669~672.
[74]  Frei C, Schar C. Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine region
[75]  [ J]. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14:1568-1584.
[76]  Nandintsetseg B, Greene J S, Goulden C E. Trends in extreme daily precipitation and temperature near lake H?vsg?l, Mongolia
[77]  [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 27(3):341-347.
[78]  Yan Z, Jones P D, Davies T D, et al. Trends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations
[79]  [J]. Climatic Change, 2002, 53(1):355-392.
[80]  [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2005, 82(3):199-205.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133