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地理科学  2012 

基于径流分类的流域降雨-径流过程动态神经网络建模

, PP. 74-80

Keywords: 径流分类,聚类分析,Elman神经网络,降雨-径流,局部神经网络,总体神经网络

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Abstract:

利用聚类分析,将径流序列分为不同类型的子径流序列,对这些子序列建立神经网络模型,采用Elman动态神经网络对沂沭河流域上游临沂子流域日径流量进行预测分析,通过与不加分类的总体神经网络的模拟结果进行对比分析。确定性系数、相关系数、平均相对误差和平均相对均方根误差4个统计指数及流域径流过程线和次洪误差分析结果都表明Elman动态神经网络能够对日径流量进行较好模拟,但基于径流分类的降雨-径流模型表现出更优良性能,能较大程度提高径流模拟精度。

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