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地理科学  2010 

基于IBIS模型的1955~2006年中国土壤温度模拟及时空演变分析

, PP. 355-362

Keywords: 土壤温度,IBIS模型,Mann-Kendall,趋势分析,中国

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Abstract:

基于IBIS模型对中国1955~2006年的土壤上层1m的年平均与月平均土壤温度进行模拟,并利用全国气象站点土壤温度观测数据对模拟结果进行验证,结果显示中国南方区的模拟效果优于北方及青藏高原区,春、夏、秋三季模拟效果优于冬季,总体而言取得了较满意的效果。基于模拟结果,利用Mann-Kendall方法对中国1955~2006年年平均和月平均土壤温度进行趋势分析的结果表明,年平均土壤温度,中国北方呈显著上升趋势,南方呈非显著上升趋势,四川盆地、贵州中部、藏东南及天山地区等小部分区域呈现显著或非显著下降趋势;月平均土壤温度,北方基本保持显著上升趋势,南方地区7~9月份总体呈现出下降的趋势,8月份最为显著。

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