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地理科学  2011 

1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析

, PP. 1118-1124

Keywords: 极端降水事件,时间变化,空间差异,山东省

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Abstract:

利用山东省1961~2008年逐日降水资料,采用百分位值法定义了极端降水事件的阈值,然后统计出极端降水事件的频次、降水量、强度和年最大日降水量,并对其空间分布和时间趋势进行分析。结果表明,山东省极端降水事件阈值的空间分布存在明显的地域差异,总体上以泰山为中心向周边逐渐减小;频次的空间差异较小,基本在18d/a左右;极端降水量、强度和年最大日降水量的空间特征基本相似,总体呈自东南向西北递减的态势,且高值中心均分布于泰山一带。48a来,除降水强度,极端降水事件的其他3个指标呈弱减少趋势,并于1965年左右发生了突变现象;相对中西部,胶东半岛的减少趋势更为显著。48a来,极端降水事件的4个指标均存在明显的年代际特征,而且还存在准11a的震荡周期,并以1984年为中间轴呈左右对称分布。

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