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地理科学  2012 

基于社区的台风灾害概率风险评估——以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为例

, PP. 348-355

Keywords: 台风,概率风险,参与式GIS,社区,上海

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Abstract:

基于PGIS方法,以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为案例,开展给定概率下的社区台风风险分析。结果表明,近60a影响上海市区的台风中,最大风速大于17.2m/s的超越概率(AEP)为12%。在此情景下,共有52幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的15.3%)有台风大风损失。上海市区最大的一次台风过程雨量达306.5mm,其超越概率为1.8%。在该情景下,研究区地面积水最深处达0.61m,有115幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的33.8%)有经济损失。在上述情景下,台风大风与过程雨量造成的损失对当地居民尚属可接受风险范围。

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