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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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大都市区城市扩展模型—以北京城市扩展模拟为例
DOI: 10.11821/xb200302017, PP. 294-304
Keywords: 大都市区,城市扩展,模型,北京
Abstract:
在分析大都市区城市扩展特征的基础上，从宏观外部约束性因素和局部城市单元自身扩展能力变化共同作用影响城市发展演变的角度，构建了一个模拟和预测大都市区城市发展演变过程的城市扩展模型(CityExpandingModelinMetropolitanArea;CEM)。首先对北京1975~1997年的城市发展过程进行模拟重建，然后在此基础上从城镇用地数量最优和位置最佳相结合的角度对北京2005~2015年的城市发展格局进行了预测。结果表明，在对各种影响因素进行严格标准化并利用自适应Monte-Carlo方法多次模拟确定最佳影响权重的基础上，该模型可以在一定程度上反映城市发展，尤其是大都市区城市发展演变的特征和规律。
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